Game 5 of the World Series gets underway this evening as the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Texas Rangers at Chase Field.
Let's dive into my top MLB PrizePicks plays for Rangers-Diamondbacks tonight.
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Here’s how I would approach a PrizePicks stack that focuses on Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Game 5.
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Marcus Semien Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
Right-hander Zac Gallen takes the mound for Arizona in Game 5 and could be a good fade candidate.
It's been a tough postseason for Gallen, who is 2-2 with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. This lack of success was predictable due to his poor underlying metrics entering the playoffs. Gallen ranked in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
That brings us Marcus Semien, who is coming off his monster five-RBI performance in Game 4. He now carries a six-game hitting streak into this contest, posting a .296 BA, .481 SLG and .848 OPS over that span.
This strong stretch of hitting could continue against Gallen, a pitcher whom Semien owns a .455 BA, a .636 SLG and a .486 wOBA against through 12 career plate appearances. Additionally, his splits jump by approximately 4% this season when facing right-handed pitching.
Corey Seager Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
In a play with solid correlation, we're also going to back the guy who hits directly behind Semien in the batting order: Corey Seager.
Seager has been on fire, flying past this number in four of his past five games, averaging 17.4 fantasy points. Over that stretch, he boasts a .318 BA, .955 SLG and 1.355 OPS.
Five games is a small sample size, but he has been seeing the ball well all postseason. Through 15 outings, he owns a .306 BA, .694 SLG and 1.136 OPS.
This playoff success should not be shocking for two reasons. First of all, his game always seems to elevate in the postseason, dating back to his days with the Dodgers.
Secondly, his underlying metrics during the regular season were among the best in baseball as Seager ranked in the 92nd percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
Christian Walker Fantasy Score Less Than 6
We're also going to fade a Diamondbacks hitter, Christian Walker, against right-hander Nathan Eovaldi.
Eovaldi's postseason has gone very differently than Gallen's, posting a 4-0 record with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP through five starts. His analytics are also better than Gallen's.
Meanwhile, Walker has failed to surpass this figure in two of his past three games. In his career against Eovaldi, Walker is 0-2 with two strikeouts.
Situationally, Game 5 is a tough spot for the first baseman as his splits drop by roughly 15% when facing right-handed pitching this year.
