Here's everything you need to know about the latest Diamondbacks vs Rangers odds with an expert pick and prediction for this World Series Game 3 showdown.
The series is tied at 1-1 as the scenery transitions to the desert for the next three contests. Let's preview the game and check out our staff's picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Game 3.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Game 3 Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent the team our MLB betting staff is targeting for Game 3 of the World Series between the Rangers and Diamondbacks. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:03 p.m. | |
| 8:03 p.m. | |
| 8:03 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks
By D.J. James
Ketel Marte has been the storyline for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense. He has been on fire, but no one seems to be talking about Geraldo Perdomo, who has been the second-best hitter for the D-Backs in the playoffs. He holds a postseason 23.1% strikeout rate, 11.5% walk rate and 127 wRC+ with a .293/.383/.822 slash line.
The pitcher for the Rangers will be Max Scherzer, who can be effective. The problem for him and the Rangers will be length. He has only gone a maximum of four innings in the playoffs. He has also allowed seven earned runs over 6 2/3 innings pitched in two appearances. Having allowed three walks and two homers is not indicative of success.
Now, the Rangers bullpen has been horrible. The best relievers were two starting pitchers for the Rangers in the regular season: Jon Gray and Andrew Heaney. They are also the only two relievers for Texas with a sub-4.00 xFIP. The next best is Josh Sborz at a 4.55 xFIP.
Sborz, José Leclerc, Chris Stratton, Dane Dunning, Martín Pérez, Aroldis Chapman, and Will Smith all have 12%+ walk rates, too.
Now, this will factor into Perdomo’s performance in this game. Since he is usually rounding out the batting order, they will not want to pitch around him. Therefore, he should have plenty of chances to just come away with one hit in this game. With Scherzer and the Texas bullpens being iffy, the over on Perdomo’s hits is in play. Take it to -145. The market has not caught up with how well he is hitting in the playoffs.
Pick: Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 Hits (-110)
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Rangers vs. Diamondbacks
Max Scherzer Outs Under 14.5 is incredibly interesting because of how he’s been used. He looked rusty in his first start against Houston, got hit around and then got yanked in the fourth innings after giving up five runs. Then in Game 7, the Rangers weren’t going to mess around and when he got into trouble in the third inning, they brought in Montgomery. However, the Rangers blew the game open in the top of the fourth, so if Scherzer didn’t get pulled it would have been interesting to see how long he would have lasted.
It’s the World Series, so I don’t think Scherzer is on a pitch count anymore, so it mainly just comes down to how effective he can be. The fastball velocity is back even though he’s come out and said he’s not 100%, but he can’t locate his offspeed pitches. In his two starts against the Astros, he threw 42 offspeed pitches, but only eight of them were in the strike zone.
It’s also come out that he has a cut in his pitching thumb that he’s had glued together, which just compounds everything that is going on leading to him just not being that effective.
I don’t think this is a great matchup for him either. The Diamondbacks are a very patient lineup, they have the seventh lowest chase rate in baseball and also the third lowest whiff percentage, which are two things Scherzer is going to need to happen if he can’t locate his slider, curveball, or changeup.
The Diamondbacks also against Scherzer’s pitch arsenal: fastball, slider, changeup, curveball, and cutter have a +21.3 run value, which is eighth best in baseball.
With the compounding injuries and bad matchup I think it’s time to take another Scherzer Pitching Outs under until he proves us wrong.
Pick: Max Scherzer Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
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Rangers vs. Diamondbacks
I think the name value with a future Hall of Famer in Max Scherzer on the mound has made Texas a tad overvalued in this spot. He has taken a step back this season and has been knocked around this postseason. Houston had more runs than strikeouts against Scherzer.
Arizona has won all of Pfaadt’s starts this postseason. His stuff is nasty, and he has found success against hitters from both sides of the plate. Pfaadt has a 20.6% swinging strike rate this postseason. He excels with his fastball and sweeper combo against right-handed batters and then really ups his changeup usage against lefties. His sweeper has a 34% whiff rate.
My favorite thing about Pfaadt is how angry he gets every time Torey Lovullo takes him out of the game. He wants the ball in his hand with the game on the line, and the moment will not be too big for the 25-year-old pitching with a ton of confidence.
Lovullo has also made all of the right decisions with his pitcher usage this postseason. Behind Pfaadt, the Diamondbacks have a bullpen advantage over Texas. Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel, and Paul Sewald have been nearly unhittable this postseason outside of Sewald’s one mistake to Garcia in Game 1.
Texas has explosive power and the ability to put up runs in a hurry with their longball, but the Snakes have been able to slowly suffocate their opponents with contact and speed. Just like Arizona did in the regular season, they have gotten their running game going with 21 stolen bases through 14 postseason games. They have already swiped five bags through the first two games of this series.
The Rangers lit up Pfaadt for seven runs in his MLB debut, ruining the memory of the day his dream came true. But, he is a totally different pitcher right now. Since that game, he has completely changed his setup, moving to the other side of the rubber, and added a sinker to his arsenal.
I am buying Pfaadt’s current form and am backing him to hand Texas their first road loss of the postseason.
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