Rangers vs. Dodgers Odds
| Rangers Odds | +196 |
| Dodgers Odds | -216 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-110/-110) |
| Time | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Sunday morning via William Hill. | |
The Texas Rangers were maybe the coldest team in Major League Baseball entering Saturday, and was coming off a 12-1 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the opening game of this series.
Then, in an instant, the Rangers' offense was awake. It grabbed a 12-1 win of its own in a game started by Trevor Bauer, of all people. Now, the sides will battle it out Sunday in a series rubber match.
Will things get back to normal for the Dodgers or is it fair to expect the struggles to continue with injuries piling up? Let's take a look at the matchup and see if we can figure out how things will go.
Rangers Looking to Ride Momentum From Blowout Win
The Rangers have never been a high-contact team, ranking fourth-worst in that department and striking out at the eighth-highest clip this year. It's important to talk about this when you've got a high-strikeout guy like Walker Buehler on the hill for the opposition. It's also worth noting here that the Rangers had lost 16 consecutive road games before their 12-1 win and 13 of 15 games overall. Safe to say, it has been a brutal month-plus for Texas.
Dane Dunning has been one of the better options this year for Texas. He comes in with a 3.96 xERA, driven down by a 25% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate. His .315 xwOBA on contact is impressive as well, and his 5.8 degree launch angle drives home the fact that Dunning has a great sinker and is able to execute his gameplan to perfection.
The righty enters this one with just two earned runs in her last 9 2/3 innings, spanning two starts, with nine strikeouts and nine hits. It's definitely impressive that a sinker-baller can blend strikeouts and pitching to contact, but that's why people are excited about Dunning.
Dodgers Hoping to Rebound From Poor Performance
The Dodgers had won four games in a row entering Saturday's meltdown, and while it's likely just a one-game blip on the radar, there's definitely a chance there's adversity on the way for Los Angeles.
Max Muncy was the latest Dodger to head back to the 10-day injured list with an oblique issue, coming on the heels of Cody Bellinger sitting Saturday with a hamstring injury. With Yoshi Tsutsugo still out, it leaves just Albert Pujols as the only healthy first baseman.
The Dodgers have been strong at the plate over the past two weeks, making contact on 77.9% of swings and posting a 113 wRC+. They've hit .243 with a top-10 mark in home runs with 18 over that span. A high-contact team that makes plenty of quality contact would figure to match up well with a sinker-baller like Dunning, but with a couple of their big exit velocity boys on the bench, the edge could be a bit diminished.
On the mound, Walker Buehler has had a weird year, generating a great chase rate but still seeing a down-turn in his strikeout rate. His hard-hit rate has jumped to 41.6% from 36.6% last year and he's also gone up to a .382 xwOBA on contact. That won't hurt him against a team like Texas.
Rangers-Dodgers Pick
I don't really love backing Buehler, and would probably back Dunning if I had to pick a pitcher. With that said, the matchup couldn't be worse for Dunning and it couldn't be better for Buehler.
The Dodgers' hurler shouldn't be burned by bad contact against one of the biggest swing-and-miss teams in the league, and with his history of strikeouts and whiffs I like his chances of turning in a special outing.
On the other hand, the Dodgers can hurt you with contact, and while Dunning does flash better strikeout numbers than you'd expect from a sinker-baller, I still don't think that's enough to get him across the finish line here. I like the first five innings spread.
Pick: Dodgers — First Five Innings -0.5 (-140)
