The Texas Rangers took care of business on Friday night with a 5-3 victory. Tonight, the Cleveland Guardians will try to bounce back and even up the series. It'll be Jon Gray on the mound for the Rangers and Ben Lively for the Guardians. Oddsmakers have the Rangers listed as slight underdogs, pricing them +110 on the moneyline. The total is set at 8.5, after opening at 8 late last night.
Let's take a look at my Rangers vs Guardians MLB parlay for Saturday.
John Feltman's Rangers vs Guardians MLB Parlay Picks for Saturday
- Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
- Josh Naylor Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
- Ben Lively Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Parlay Odds: +515 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Rangers vs Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
Corey Seager has had a terrific month of August, sporting a .993 OPS in that span. He picked up two hits on Friday night and now draws a great matchup against Ben Lively on Saturday. Seager is a 1-for-3 lifetime against Lively, but that one hit was a HR. Lively has begun to regress from his terrific start of the season and is a guy who allows a lot of hard contact.
Left-handed hitters are only batting .216 against Lively, but I will not let that discourage me. Seager is hitting .289 with 36 extra-base hits against right-handers in 2024, especially against fastballs and sinkers. Lively relies on fastballs and sinkers roughly 68% of the time. Seager sports above a .394 xWOBA and 58% hard-hit rate against both pitches.
I expect Seager to continue his elite success against right-handed pitching, and Lively fits the profile of a supreme matchup. We also have the luxury of the Rangers being the road team, which will likely guarantee Seager an extra at bat.
Josh Naylor Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Rangers vs Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
Josh Naylor is a streaky hitter at times, and he is 0-18 over his last four games. Tonight, he gets just what the doctor ordered against Rangers right-hander Jon Gray amid his slump. Naylor is 5-for-15 lifetime against Gray, who is certainly on the back end of his career at this point. Gray's strikeout numbers have decimated, and opposing hitters have a 43% hard-hit rate against him.
Gray primarily features a two-pitch arsenal: fastballs and sliders. Naylor struggles against the Slider but has excellent numbers against the fastball. Naylor's numbers are much better against right-handed pitching, and he's also been a better hitter at home. Gray only has a 14.9% whiff rate against his fastball, so there's a great chance he'll be able to square one up in his couple of plate appearances against him.
I do not expect Naylor to continue slumping much longer, and tonight is a great buy-low opportunity with his total base prop. With all being said, I'll happily take my chances that he generates at least one extra-base hit tonight.
Ben Lively Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Rangers vs Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
Ben Lively has been due for serious regression all season, and it seems like it is finally coming into effect. Lively has a 4.05 ERA over the past month, but only 18 punchouts in 26 IP.
The Rangers may be a huge disappointment in 2024, but they are only striking out at a 21% clip as a team. That is amongst the top-10 throughout the MLB. Lively had five strikeouts in his last start against Minnesota, but only generated three combined strikeouts in his previous two starts. Here is where Lively ranks in a few key strikeout metrics:
-11th Percentile in Chase%
-7th Percentile in Whiff%
-29th Percentile in Strikeout%
-5th Percentile in Fastball Velocity
These numbers are all worrisome, and reasons why he has been regressing as of late. I expect the Rangers offense to generate a lot of contact tonight, and I would not be surprised to see him exit the game early.
