Rangers vs. Mariners Odds, Pick
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+126 | 7 -122 / +100 | +1.5 -176 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-148 | 7 -122 / +100 | -1.5 +146 |
The Texas Rangers are coming off an impressive road series win against the Los Angeles Dodgers and now quickly turn around to head to Seattle. The Rangers were embarrassed on Tuesday, 15-2, but they bounced back nicely with back-to-back wins.
Meanwhile, the Mariners are atop of the AL West with a 5.5-game cushion on the Rangers. They have the opportunity to increase that lead beginning on Friday.
It'll be veteran southpaw Andrew Heaney on the mound for the Rangers and Luis Castillo gets the ball for the Mariners. Most books have the over/under set at 7 and the Mariners as -150 favorites on the moneyline.
Let's break down Friday night's clash, including a Rangers vs. Mariners pick.
Texas Rangers
An interesting dynamic heading into Friday night's game is the Rangers' hitters' success against Castillo. The offense has seen Castillo a handful of times over the years, and it's surprising to see such great success against an elite pitcher.
Over 93 at-bats, the Rangers are hitting .301 against Castillo with four home runs.
The Rangers' bats have done just enough over the last couple of nights to pull out victories, but with this game total so low, the market is implying that they'll need every run they can get to secure the win.
It's a similar story for the Mariners' hitters against Heaney, as they've seen him an ample amount. Heaney has pitched mediocre over the last month, but it's been good enough to lower his season ERA to 4.06.
Heaney's metrics are nothing special, but he's doing a great job of limiting free passes and is getting a lot of hitters to chase at a high frequency. However, he's still getting hit hard, and his strikeout numbers have dipped from last season.
The Rangers' bullpen was strong last night, but overall, it's been a huge disaster. They currently have the fifth highest bullpen ERA in the MLB, and the backend of the pen has worked a ton this week.
If Heaney doesn't give them length tonight, I have doubts the Rangers can win this game.
Seattle Mariners
Castillo is pivotal at the top of the Mariners' rotation, and tonight, he has a tall task against a good Rangers offense. I mentioned the success of the Rangers' hitters against Castillo above, so there may be moments in the ball game where he struggles.
Castillo's numbers are solid, but they're not ace-like stats by any means. He enters the start with a 3.35 ERA, which should be 3.70, according to Statcast.
His strikeout numbers are down a bit from last season, but his whiff, chase and walk rates are all above average. There's nothing to be concerned about, but it's not crazy to say Castillo is no longer in that ace category I alluded to.
The Mariners' offense is hitting .267 against Heaney in over 90+ at-bats. Those are decent numbers, and Heaney has shown that he's potentially on the decline in his career.
I think the Mariners' offense can provide Castillo some run support, even if he's not at his sharpest.
Plus, if they knock Heaney out of the game early, they'll have the luxury of facing a tired and horrific middle of the Rangers bullpen.
Rangers vs. Mariners
Betting Pick & Prediction
I expect the Mariners to pick up the win tonight, but I'm not thrilled with the current number oddsmakers are giving us.
However, I think the current total number of 7 is far too low, so I'm happy to grab that number right away.
Don't be surprised to see that number move up before first pitch, especially given the Rangers' offensive success against Castillo in the past.
Heaney may provide some length, but regardless, the Rangers' bullpen has to be tired from this past week, and it's been a disaster for most of the year.
Castillo is still a good pitcher, but the market is pricing him in far too much.
I'll roll the dice and happily take a 3-3 game late, with either team giving us a shot to go over the total.
Pick: Over 7 (Play to 7.5)
