Rangers vs. Mets Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-148 | 9.5 -102 / -120 | -1.5 +108 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+126 | 9.5 -102 / -120 | +1.5 -130 |
Texas will look to cap off a three-game sweep Wednesday in a favorable matchup at Citi Field. The Rangers will send Dane Dunning to the mound (3.36 ERA, 136 and 2/3 IP) to take on Denyi Reyes (7.50 ERA, 12 IP) — they are priced as -148 favorites for the matchup.
Texas Rangers
Dane Dunning will look to build on his surprisingly strong 3.36 ERA on Wednesday. As you might assume based upon Dunning's overall MLB results and preseason expectations, luck has helped him in achieving that mark.
His xERA sits at 4.51 entering this matchup, and his xFIP is 4.36. Over the last five outings, his per-game xFIP has averaged 4.33. In those 29 2/3 innings he has posted an ERA of 3.70 with a WHIP of 1.29. Dunning's Stuff+ rating is well below league average at 83, and his Pitching+ rating is as well at 95.
Opponents are hitting just .196 with runners in scoring position this season. That mark has been the key to Dunning's success and will likely not hold from this point on, which should lead to more modest results.
The Rangers bullpen has stabilized recently, pitching to an 11th-best 4.16 ERA over the last 30 days with a middle of the pack xFIP of 4.38.
Texas has still hit to a wRC+ of 133 as a team this month, and has hard-hit 36% of balls. They have hit to a wRC+ of 113 against right-handed pitching this season, and should remain with Josh Jung as the only key absence from the order.
New York Mets
Denyi Reyes will be given another opportunity to start here in a somewhat surprising move from Buck Showalter. Reyes has pitched to an ERA of 15.88 in a tiny 15-inning sample as a starter this season with an ERA of 7.50 overall. His xERA comes in at 5.44 with his xFIP up at 5.47.
Even at the Triple-A level he has struggled this season. In 76 innings, he posted a 5.80 ERA and a WHIP of 1.42. His Stuff+ is well below average at 89, but his Location+ is better than average at 101.
The Mets bullpen has been a notable concern of late as well. Over the last 30 days, Mets relievers own an ERA of 5.87, with a sixth-worst xFIP of 4.77.
New York has hit to a wRC+ of 100 over the last 14 days, and a mark of 98 over the last 30 days. On days with Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor both in the lineup, they should still quietly compile a slightly-better-than-league-average unit, which seems easy to forget looking at their 60-73 mark and the narratives surrounding the team.
Rangers vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Rangers will have a perfect opportunity to continue trending out of their nightmare run and sweep the Mets in this matchup. Reyes has posted lowly results at every level this season, and seems likely to remain a drastically below-average option at the MLB level moving forward.
The Mets bullpen remains a complete disaster as well, and has struggled badly since the deadline. All while the Rangers have stabilized recently. Barring a surprisingly poor lineup, the Rangers deserve to be a bigger favorite here than -148, even while giving full credit to the fact that Dane Dunning is likely to pitch to an ERA greater than 4.50 from here on out.
Backing Texas in some fashion with either the moneyline or run line is my favorite play on this matchup. Looking for a complete blowup from the Mets pitching staff in this game and playing some alt lines like Rangers -3.5 (+250) or team total over 6.5 are both solid options as well.
