Rangers vs Orioles Pick, Odds, Preview for ALDS Game 1
Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Semien and Kyle Bradish.
Rangers vs. Orioles odds for Game 1 on Saturday have home Baltimore favored to start the series ahead.
The Rangers hammered the Tampa Bay Rays in impressive fashion in the Wild Card Round. The focus in the sports media was on how few Rays fans showed for day playoff games in the middle of the week, but the Rangers executed exactly as they needed.
The Rangers are missing their ace and best starting pitcher, Max Scherzer, probably for the entire ALDS against the Baltimore Orioles. That said, they can hit, and this can always keep them in the game.
Texas will throw Andrew Heaney against Kyle Bradish on Saturday. Heaney clearly is not the pitcher Bradish is, but he did have a strong second half.
Bradish, however, showed why he will be getting the ball for the Orioles in their first playoff appearance since 2014.
Let's take a look at the odds and make a pick on Rangers vs. Orioles Game 1.
Rangers vs. Orioles Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8 -102o / -118u | +120 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -102o / -118u | -142 |
Texas Rangers
Heaney had a 4.15 ERA against a 4.51 xERA this season, so he clearly one of the weaker starting pitchers for the Rangers. They are between a rock and hard place without Scherzer or having to pitch Jordan Montgomery on short rest.
Heaney did allow some loud contact, which is one reason the moneyline is a tad questionable. Heaney held a 90.1 mph Average Exit Velocity, a 10.2% Barrel Rate, and a 38.6% Hard Hit Rate. His strikeout rate is 23.6%, but he will walk people often at a 9.6% walk rate. Heaney does make sense to throw in Baltimore. Camden Yards is one of the hardest parks to hit in as a righty, especially for power with the incredibly deep pull-side wall.
Texas had a 113 wRC+ and .788 OPS since Aug. 1 against right-handers in the regular season. They ranked 8th in wRC+. Their walk rate was 10.2% and their strikeout rate was 23.5%, so they walk more than most. In addition, they have eight players above a .320 xwOBA in that timeframe. Leody Taveras was just below them at .311, and Mitch Garver, Evan Carter, and Corey Seager were all above .365, as well. The lineup is stacked. Even if Bradish has silenced multiple strong lineups, this is as good as any.
The major issue for Texas this season has been the bullpen. Rangers relievers had a collective 4.32 xFIP, 9.2% walk rate, and 23.7% strikeout rate since Aug. 1. However, they had five arms below a 4.00 xFIP and two below a 3.00 xFIP. This should be enough behind Heaney’s start, especially if he is keeping the ball on the ground.
Baltimore Orioles
Bradish was fantastic in the second half with a 2.34 ERA over 84 2/3 innings pitched. On the season, he also kept the ball on the ground at 49.1%. His Barrel Rate was 6.9% with a 90 mph Average Exit Velocity and 42% Hard Hit Rate. He walked 6.5% of batters and held a 25% strikeout rate. His xERA was 3.82 against a 2.83 ERA, so regression is still in the cards. Adding on, Texas had the third-lowest groundball rate in baseball this season, so this seems like it would negate Bradish’s propensity to produce grounders. Texas also had a higher Hard Hit Rate than Baltimore.
The O's had a 116 wRC+ off of lefties since August 1 with a .781 OPS. They hold a 9.9% walk rate and sub-20% strikeout rate, so they will be patient with Heaney facing them. They have nine hitters above a .320 xwOBA, so this essentially encapsulates everyone who will likely be in the lineup on Saturday. They could very well get their runs off of Heaney, but Camden Yards' being a tough place for power-hitting righties is a concern.
Baltimore has the better relief options. Félix Bautista needing Tommy John surgery was a massive blow to the high-leverage arms for the O’s. They do have six arms below a 4.00 xFIP, so this is maybe a shade better than Texas. This will not be as large of an advantage in this series as it looked in the middle of the season.
Rangers vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
Texas should hit Bradish hard. Heaney might be better than usual in Baltimore with a favorable setting, but he still allowed hard contact and will walk Orioles hitters. This could then make Bruce Bochy dig into the relief staff a bit early.
Instead of backing either side on this one, going with one of the most powerful lineups in baseball to score often is the right call.
Take the Rangers over 3.5 (-115) to 4 (-125).
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