Rangers vs. Phillies Odds
| Rangers Odds | +157 |
| Phillies Odds | -172 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-115 / -105) |
| Time | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The struggling Philadelphia Phillies turn to Zack Wheeler in the final leg of their two-game interleague series with the Texas Rangers. The Phillies sit two games below .500 after their 6-4 loss on Tuesday night.
The Rangers, meanwhile, have won three straight and hand the ball to veteran left-hander Martin Perez.
Can Texas pull off the road sweep against the lowly Phillies, or will Wheeler provide the stability needed on the mound en route to a bounce-back win?
Rangers Offense Struggles Against Lefties
Perez was a strong fade candidate last season with the Boston Red Sox. His xERA sat around 5.54, and opponents had a .280 xBA against the left-hander.
But in his four starts since rejoining the Rangers, he has a sparkling 2.17 xERA and a 2.55 FIP. He ranks inside the top 10% of all pitchers in xSLG and barrel percentage, two areas where Perez struggled in 2021.
Over his last two starts, Perez has gone 13 innings, giving up just one run on four hits. He's not an overpowering pitcher by any means, as his hard stuff sits in the low 90s.
Perez doesn't generate many swings and misses. Instead, he relies on his five-pitch arsenal to generate soft contact for the Rangers defense.
One of the Rangers' biggest problems, however, has been their offensive woes against right-handed pitching. Despite the offseason additions of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, Texas has been sluggish in 2022.
While the Rangers have teed off against southpaws — .258/.336/.435 — the numbers see a significant decline against right-handers, which they draw on Wednesday night.
In nearly 300 more at-bats against righties, Texas has just one more extra-base hit. It slashes .208/.271/.300 and sits in the bottom three in both wOBA and wRC+.
Phillies Turn to Wheeler
Wheeler put together his best outing of 2022 in his last start, blanking the Rockies over six innings on just one hit.
After working his way back from shoulder soreness in the offseason, Wheeler struggled in his first few starts, specifically a seven-run drubbing by Miami.
And while he's been walking more batters in the early going, Wheeler's advanced metrics prove there's nothing to be worried about.
His xERA (3.73) and FIP (3.61) are both nearly two runs lower than his actual ERA (5.79), and opponents have not been barreling the right-hander.
Despite limiting hard contact, Wheeler has suffered from a bit of misfortune. He has stranded just 61.6% of runners through four starts, over 10% lower than his career averages.
That number should positively regress toward the mean and with it, his ERA should dip, too.
Rangers-Phillies Pick
This is an interesting matchup at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies have been struggling in the going, yet still remain above-average offensively in most categories.
They now get a southpaw — where they experience more success — behind arguably the best pitcher in their rotation.
Wheeler, by advanced metrics, has been pitching a lot better than his numbers indicate. I think his shoulder soreness took a toll in his first few starts, especially with Spring Training being pushed back because of the offseason lockout.
The side is priced correctly in this matchup. The Phillies should be decently-sized favorites, as they have the edge both at the plate and on the mound.
And while I'm hesitant to back Perez to continue his strong 2022 campaign, I do think it's worth a look at the Rangers team total.
Texas' offense has been abysmal against right-handed pitching, and now it gets one of the top arms in baseball that finished second in Cy Young voting last season.
Wheeler's last start was promising, and if he can limit the walks, I don't see Texas can do any damage.
The Phillies are worth a look ML-wise if you throw them in a two-team parlay with another favorite, and Texas' team total is worth a play as well.
I just don't trust Perez to shut down a Phillies offense that has a proven track record against southpaws, and I think Wheeler provides a great opportunity for a bounce-back win when Texas' bats go silent.
Pick: Rangers Team Total u3.5 (to -130) | Phillies ML in parlay
