Rays vs. Rangers Odds Game 2
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8 -105o / -115u | +124 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8 -105o / -115u | -148 |
Rangers vs. Rays Game 2 odds opened with Tampa as a -138 favorite. The Rays will need to come through as favorites in order to force a deciding Game 3 after being shut out in Game 1.
Zach Eflin will take the mound for Tampa and he has been better than advertised after joining the team as a free agent last offseason. He will be countered by Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers, who struggled down the stretch after coming back from an injury.
Let's preview Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Round series with our Rangers vs. Rays pick.
Tampa Bay Rays
Eflin has a 3.50 ERA against a 3.09 xERA on the season. His barrel rate is 9%, but his average exit velocity allowed is 87.5 mph and his hard-hit rate is 35.1%. He strikes out 26.5% of batters, while only walking 3.5%.
He has a 50.4% ground-ball rate and 34% chase rate, so he can keep the Rangers off balance. He had a 3.25 ERA in the first half against a 3.82 ERA in the second half, but he did not see the drop-off that Eovaldi did.
The Rays are a comparable lineup to the Rangers. They had a 119 wRC+ and .779 OPS since August 1 off of righties with a 7.3% walk rate and 23.4% strikeout rate. They have seven bats, but above a .330 xwOBA. Yandy Díaz is above .380, so he is one of the best bats in this game.
In relief, the Rays have been exceptional. Since August 1, they have a collective 3.65 xFIP with a 27.4% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate. They have several arms below a 4.00 xFIP, including three (Jalen Beeks, Robert Stephenson, and Pete Fairbanks) below a 3.00 xFIP. They have the lockdown guys that the Rangers do not, and this could be the difference in the game.
Texas Rangers
Eovaldi held a 3.63 ERA against a 3.99 xERA, and this spiked in September. However, on the season, he had an 88.9 mph average exit velocity allowed, 7.9% barrel rate and 43.1% hard-hit rate. His ground-ball rate was exceptional at 51.5%, so this was his bread-and-butter.
After his right forearm strain in July, things did not go swimmingly. He had a 1.92 WHIP and 9.30 ERA over 20 1/3 innings in September and his failures were a big reason the Rangers failed to capture the AL West and earn a bye into the ALDS. He allowed eight homers from April 1 to July 18. Since returning from his injury, he allowed seven homers in six starts.
The Rangers can hit, though. Since August 1 against righties, they had a .788 OPS and 113 wRC+. They own a 23.5% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate, as well. However, Eflin refuses to walk anyone, so this may not be the edge they are accustomed to.
In that same time frame off of right-handers, they have eight batters eclipsing a .320 xwOBA with Corey Seager over .400. They have power and can show it. The issue is Eflin can make them chase and keep the ball on the ground.
The Texas bullpen is bad, compared to the rest of the playoff field. The Rangers had a team xFIP of 4.32 since August 1 with a 23.7% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. On the other hand, they still have five arms below a 4.00 xFIP in that time, so they have a few options if Eovaldi struggles. He may not even get through three innings against this Rays lineup, so it is a concern.
Rangers vs. Rays
Betting Pick & Prediction
Eovaldi’s arm injury looks like it completely altered the trajectory of a Cy Young-contending campaign, and he will have to somehow be the ace of the staff against a great Rays lineup.
The Rays have the better starter and bullpen and get home-field advantage. They should win game two. Take them to -160.
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