The 2023 MLB postseason will kick off Tuesday afternoon with the Texas Rangers visiting the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rangers pulled off an impressive turnaround after just 68 wins last season to a 90-win season and their first playoff berth since 2016. However, the Rangers did squander their command of the AL West division, losing their final game of the season to give up the division lead, which forced them into a Wild Card Round series rather than having a first-round bye.
Their opponents also coughed up a massive division lead. Tampa Bay got off to the best start in MLB history with a 23-6 record at the end of April. The Rays led the AL East by 6.5 games in July, but as they slowed down, Baltimore got hot and left the Rays looking at a three-game series.
During their six meetings in the regular season, Texas went 4-2 against the Rays, but Tampa’s two wins both came at Tropicana Field, where this series will take place. The Rays are around a -165 favorite in this series and a -155 favorite in Game 1. Let’s dive into where the betting value lies.
Rangers vs. Rays Game 1 Odds (Updated)
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +128 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -152 |
Tampa Bay Rays
What makes Tampa Bay’s historic start that much more impressive is they did it without their ace. Tyler Glasnow began the year on the injured list with an oblique injury, postponing his debut until the end of May. Glasnow did not look like himself early on, with a lower strikeout rate and higher walk rate than we expect from him. However, after the All-Star break he seemed to regain his form.
In 13 starts after the mid-season classic, Glasnow posted a 3.22 ERA and struck out 98 in 78 innings. He finished the season in the top 3% of the league with a 33.4% strikeout rate. His fastball still averages over 96 mph and his curveball is still one of the game’s best. Opponents hit just .095 with a 68.2% strikeout rate against Glasnow’s curveball this season.
We are used to seeing a dominant bullpen in Tampa Bay, but it was truly a tale of two seasons for that unit. In the first half of the season, the Rays' bullpen ranked 24th in the league with a 4.58 xFIP. Well, after the All-Star break this unit was absolutely dominant. Tampa’s relivers posted a 3.68 xFIP in the second half of the season, the best mark in the league by a wide margin.
The Rays' offense cooled off a little bit as the season went on, especially after they lost their shortstop, but this was still a top five offense in the league. The Rays finished second in the league in wRC+ and hit for both power and average.
Depth has been an issue for Tampa Bay at the plate in the past but not this season. Six guys have a wRC+ over 125 for the Rays. Yandy Diaz did not get enough credit for the terrific season he had. He finished the year with a 164 wRC+. Isaac Paredes also hit 31 home runs for the Rays despite mediocre barrel rates. He has found a knack for pulling fly balls out of the park.
Texas Rangers
After multiple injuries to its pitching staff, Texas went out and acquired Jordan Montgomery from St. Louis at the trade deadline, and the 30-year-old has been terrific for them. In 11 starts for the Rangers, Montgomery made eight quality starts and tossed a 2.79 ERA.
On the season as a whole, Montgomery set a career-best mark with a 3.20 ERA between St. Louis and Texas and had a 4.01 xERA. He utilizes a sinker as his main pitch, and it was fantastic for him this season, allowing just a .255 average to opponents. He also has a changeup and a curveball that is his main put-away pitch.
Behind Montgomery is where things get sketchy. The Rangers' bullpen has been unreliable all season and the clear weakness of this team. The Texas relievers ranked 22nd in the league with a 4.41 xFIP. Jose Leclerc has been terrific, but after that it’s hard to trust anybody. Will Smith struggled all season and Aroldis Chapman has a long history of problems in big situations. His blown save against the Seattle Mariners in the final series of the season likely cost the Rangers the division.
Offense has not been an issue for Texas, however. This team clubbed 233 home runs, the third most in the league, and it finished in the top four in both wRC+ and wOBA. The Rangers did well against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers.
Texas combined power and patience at the plate, finishing top five in home runs and walk rate. Corey Seager leads the way for the Rangers, finishing the year batting .327 with a .419 wOBA and 33 home runs. He has plenty of help with Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Nathaniel Lowe and rookie Josh Jung all having great years at the plate.
Rangers vs. Rays
Betting Pick & Prediction
As dominant as both these offenses have been all season, I am going to do a scary thing and bet an under here.
I struggled to find a strong edge in this game, as I like Tampa Bay to win but think -150 is a little too much juice to lay here. As good as both of these offenses are, I think I just trust the starting pitchers more.
Montgomery has been terrific since joining the Rangers. He has not allowed more than one run in four straight starts entering the postseason. Montgomery pitched to a 3.83 xFIP since coming to Texas, with a 21.5% strikeout rate and just a 4.9% walk rate. He has limited playoff experience but has allowed just one run in 6 2/3 innings of postseason work.
We also saw Glasnow really regain his elite form down the stretch of the year. Over the second half of the season, Glasnow had a 2.74 xFIP and an absurd 31.7% strikeout rate. Since the All-Star break, Glasnow ranks fourth in the league in xFIP among starting pitchers and fifth in strikeout rate. He had a couple of duds in September but looked terrific in his final start of the season, so I’m not worried about him.
While Tampa Bay has an elite bullpen, the Texas relievers scare me, so I will focus my attention on the first five innings and trust these starting pitchers. It will be difficult to keep these offenses at bay for a full nine innings, but I’m hopeful we can get through five innings unscathed between two starting pitchers in great form.
