Rangers vs. Yankees Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -112 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +150 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -104 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -184 |
The New YorkYankees picked up some steam on offense in a series win over the Seattle Mariners this week, and they'll look to parlay that into some more success when the Rangers come to town on Friday night. Can Clarke Schmidt continue to improve, or will he be the second starter in as many nights to get lit up in front of the home fans?
Let's break it all down in our Rangers vs. Yankees preview and prediction.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers are red hot at the dish right now. They've scored five or more runs in their last four games, and for the last two weeks they rank second in wRC+. Texas is doing most of it by getting balls in play, hitting .272 with a .184 ISO. The lineup has struck out in 22.2% of plate appearances and walked 8.9%, though, so it's not as if it's done everything at an elite level.
The man on the hill for Texas here has done his best Zach Davies impersonation this season, pitching to a 2.78 ERA despite horrid peripherals. It's now been 64 2/3 innings that Dane Dunning has been able to withstand an ugly 5.06 xERA, and it would seem the defense is what deserves the credit here. Texas leads the way in Defensive Runs Saved, perhaps aiding Dunning in pitching around a .281 xBA.
The sinkerballer has allowed a decent .245 batting average on that pitch with an average launch angle of 7 degrees, helping get his ground ball rate to an above-average 46.8%. His cutter has been hit in the air and carries with it a .261 xBA.
New York Yankees
Schmidt hasn't been nearly as fortunate as Dunning this season. His expected ERA of 4.36 comes in under his actual 4.65 ERA, and it would seem unjust given his firmly average 44.2% ground ball rate and solid 23.3% strikeout rate. He was burned by the gopher ball early in the season, giving up seven round-trippers in 25 April innings, but he's given up just four in over 46 innings since then. Schmidt also had some issues with walks in May, issuing 12 free passes in 30 2/3 innings, but he's walked just three this month.
Schmidt's strikeout numbers have come down in June, and his ground ball rate has fallen as well. As a result, his expected batting average this month is .249 after it was .229 a month ago. It's been nice to see him pitch better in the last couple of months, but it would appear after a long month of progress in May he's taken some steps back in June.
In terms of this Yankees offense, the numbers are pretty grim if you back up even just a week, but over the Mariners series the lineup showed a bunch of promise. They did pick up just five hits in Thursday's loss, but four walks is very encouraging to see.
The Bombers have struggled in that area all year but have made some strides over the last few games, perhaps due to a change in approach. It was evident in their two wins over the Mariners that hitters were focused on going the other way through the shift.
Rangers vs. Yankees Betting Pick
The Yankees have improved on offense in recent games, but this could be a tricky matchup with Dunning. He doesn't walk many, which will hurt considering that's an area of weakness, and while his cutter has been the primary pitch hit in the air for probable hits, the Yankees are dead last in pitch value against cutters. On top of that, they're dead last against sinkers.
On the other side, I'm not certain Schmidt's supposed improvements over the last few starts are a sign that he's changed. He walked three batters last time out and would seem to be getting away with pitching poorly based on his expected numbers.
I like the Rangers to take this one.
Pick: Rangers ML (-112) |
