Editor's note: This game has been postponed due to inclement weather and will be made up on Monday, May 9.
Rangers vs. Yankees Odds
| Rangers Odds | +145 |
| Yankees Odds | -165 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-120/+100) |
| Time | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees will host Glenn Otto and the Texas Rangers in the Bronx on Saturday afternoon. The Yankees have the best winning percentage in baseball as of Friday afternoon. The conditions will be a bit rainy in New York for this ball game, but the Yankees have excelled against right-handers this season. Otto has been getting lucky with a 4.36 xERA versus a 2.89 ERA. Since the Yankees can hit the ball hard throughout the lineup, they should be able to hit the over on their team total.
Texas Rangers: Can Otto Limit Hard Contact?
Otto ranks poorly on the Hard Hit Percentage scale, as he is allowing hard-hit balls at a 45.8% rate. The Yankees are the hardest hitting team in baseball, registering 91.7 MPH exit velocities on average. This does not bode well for Otto. The Yankees have a 9.7% walk rate. They do chase at a relatively high clip and Otto has struck out five in both starts this season. This is the leg up he may have on the lineup, but the Yankees will be fine with yielding a few strikeouts in exchange for hard hit-balls and runs.
Building off of that, the Rangers do not have the best bullpen. They own a 3.86 xFIP, which ranks 21st in the MLB. Joe Barlow has been a great closer, but the middle relief has some concerns. Greg Holland, for instance, has a 40%-plus Hard Hit Rate. If the Yankees can get to the bullpen quickly, they will have a major edge with Texas digging deep into its pitching depth.
New York Yankees: Offense Could Have Big Day
Now, on top of the Yankees crushing righties, they have plenty of individuals who matchup well against Otto. Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Joey Gallo all have a .400+ xwOBA facing right-handers this season. The Yankees have five others in the lineup with a .330+ xwOBA, as well.
Gerrit Cole has started to look like himself again. He went at least six innings in his past two outings while not allowing any runs. His 3.54 xERA is a bit concerning when compared to his 3.00 ERA. He also only ranks in the 36th percentile in Hard Hit Rate, so even though the Yankees should win this game, the value is not necessarily in the moneyline or run line.
The Yankees' bullpen has been highly touted for some time. Aroldis Chapman has not allowed a run this season, but still holds a 3.96 xFIP. They have a collective 2.30 ERA and 3.52 xFIP. This says that they will regress negatively as the season progresses. They are getting lucky and even if the Rangers have the second-worst wRC+ against righties this season, this is another concern for taking the Yankees.. Adolis García, Corey Seager, Willie Calhoun and Jonah Heim have been solid, so if the Rangers stack them toward the top of the order, they could also produce some runs.
Rangers-Yankees Pick
The Yankees have a few pitching issues that might come to fruition in this game, even if Texas has slumped versus right-handers this season. The Yankees will, however, crush Texas pitching in this game and betting the total at 4.5 (-110) to 5.5 (-110) contains some value. The top of the Yankees' lineup is lethal. Gallo and Rizzo have a tremendous advantage as power-hitting lefties with a short porch in right field of Yankee Stadium. Yes, the weather might keep the runs at bay, but this should not impact the hot New York bats.
Pick: New York Yankees over 4.5 (-110) | play to 5.5 (-110)
