Rangers vs. Yankees Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -145 | 9 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +118 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +122 | 9 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -140 |
Aaron Judge landed on the injured list on June 7 — the New York Yankees have been one of the worst hitting teams in baseball ever since, especially against right-handed pitching. On Saturday, they face one of the best teams in the league thus far: the Texas Rangers.
The starting pitching matchup pits Jon Gray against Luis Severino. Gray has had some issues lately, but Severino has lost whatever semblance of reliability he had in the past. Considering both teams have bullpens that are about equal, and the current state of the Yankees lineup, it's hard to back New York in this one.
Continue reading for my preview — and betting pick — for Rangers vs. Yankees on Saturday from Yankee Stadium.
Texas Rangers
Jon Gray has a 2.96 ERA against a 4.14 xERA. He ranks in the 62nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 78th percentile in Hard Hit Rate.
His chase rate ranks in the 88th percentile, and his strikeout and walk numbers are in the middle of the pack. Even though the Yankees chase less often than average, they haven't been the same without Aaron Judge.
On offense, the Rangers can flat out hit.
It seems like everyone in their lineup has at least 10 homers already, but even with that overstatement, they are still great. Against righties in June, Texas has a 128 wRC+ with an 11% walk rate and .818 OPS. The Rangers have nine active hitters with a .320+ xwOBA against righties and two others just below.
Adolis Garcia – Texas Rangers (16) pic.twitter.com/xfUsYMmRis
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) June 21, 2023
In relief, Texas has improved.
The Rangers own an xFIP of 3.97 — four active relievers below 4.00 — with a 23.7% strikeout rate in June. They also maintain a sub-70% LOB percentage, so negative regression doesn't look like it's in the cards.
New York Yankees
Luis Severino has a 6.30 ERA against a 6.34 xERA. The good news is he doesn't face much by the way of regression. The bad news is he's just terrible.
His Average Exit Velocity is 89.7 mph with a 12.5% Barrel Rate and 44.8% Hard Hit Rate. Severino's chase rate is below average, and his ERA in June is over 9.00. Nothing is going well for the pitcher who should be the number two starter in New York's rotation.
As I've mentioned, the Yankees are badly missing Judge. In June, they have the worst wRC+ (70) off righties. Their OPS is .620, and there's really no source of power in the lineup.
They once had six qualifying active bats with a .320+ xwOBA. This has since fallen off to four in June, so the bottom half of the lineup has its work cut out for them. To top it off, Greg Allen and Willie Calhoun are also on the IL.
The Yankees match the Rangers in relief — this is the only close comparison between the two.
They have a 3.92 xFIP and five arms below 4.00. This should help when Severino inevitably leaves in the third or fourth inning. But if he departs early, this probably provides the betting edge, yet again, to the Rangers.
Rangers vs. Yankees Betting Pick
Gray is the better starter. While he won't necessarily produce the same results as the season wears on, he's undoubtedly better than Severino.
The Yankees are getting a moneyline boost representative of Judge being in the lineup … only he's not.
Expect Gray to mow down the Yankees and look for the Rangers to continue their torrid hitting. This won't be close.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline |
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