Rays vs Brewers Odds & Pick: Why to Bet Tampa Bay
Via Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Eflin #24 of the Tampa Bay Rays in action against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on April 20, 2024 in New York City. The Rays defeated the Yankees 2-0 in ten innings.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 8 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +140 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -165 |
It's time to dive into the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers odds and make a pick in our MLB betting guide for Wednesday, May 1.
The Tampa Bay Rays have scuffled as of late by losing eight of their last 11 ballgames. They lost the opening game of the series to Milwaukee last night, and now they turn to Zach Eflin to stop the bleeding on Wednesday afternoon.
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers have been a nice surprise to begin the season. They played great baseball in April without some of their key offensive players.
Colin Rea gets the ball for the Brew Crew and enters with a 2-0 record and a 3.25 ERA.
Let's break down the matchup below, along with my Rays vs. Brewers prediction.
Tampa Bay Rays
Eflin has not gotten off to the start he would have liked, but the metrics suggest he is due for positive regression moving forward. He currently has a 30.8% Called Strikes + Whiffs Rate (CSW%), which suggests he is missing a lot of bats.
The Brewers are hitting .268 against right-handed pitchers this season as their lineup is not healthy. However, William Contreras continues to mash the baseball, hitting .368 on the year.
After the benches cleared on Tuesday, I expect a fiery effort from the Rays in this ballgame. They might be among the bottom 10 in both runs scored and home runs per game, but Rea is a pitcher they can take advantage of.
Rea has a 3.25 ERA, but he also has a 4.71 xFIP and only strikes out six batters per nine innings. Normally, pitchers can get away with that low Strikeout Rate if they generate a lot of weak contact and ground balls, but Rea does neither.
Randy Arozarena is a big reason why the Rays have struggled, especially since he is hitting just .140 on the season. He only has a .181 BABIP, which is a sign of some bad luck.
The offense should do enough against Rea despite Arozarena's struggles, and I have faith that Eflin is going to start churning out consecutive quality starts moving forward.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers won comfortably on Tuesday, but their offense should come back to life on Wednesday afternoon. Eflin is no slouch, as he has shown in years past that he can pitch like a true ace.
The Brewers are getting the job done with their young hitters who have emerged to be nice replacements for a couple of regular starters, including Christian Yelich. Gary Sanchez will not be a sustainable option in the three-hole, plus Eflin already creates a lot of swings and misses.
I cannot back the Brewers due to Rea being on the mound. He has survived his first couple of starts, but that is going to come to a crashing halt eventually.
It is always dangerous facing a struggling team in baseball, as the longevity of the season makes it tempting to believe that they are bound to turn things around. The Rays might have overperformed last season, but they are not an under-.500 team by any means.
Rays vs Brewers
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm betting the Rays at -105 on the moneyline in their Wednesday matinee. Eflin's metrics suggest he is due for a strong start, and the Tampa Bay offense has a great chance to bounce back in a favorable matchup.
Rea walks nearly half the amount of batters he strikes out, and he also gives up way too many fly balls. This is a slam-dunk pick for me as I expect the Rays to get back on track and knot up the series.
Pick: Rays ML -105 (Play to -120)
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