Rays vs Yankees Friday Pick | MLB Odds, Predictions
Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Eflin
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+145 | 8 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -140 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-175 | 8 -105o / -115u | -1.5 -115 |
The Yankees finished the first half by taking two out of three games from the Orioles, New York's first series win in over a month. Despite the recent dip, the Yankees still have the third-best record in the American League thanks to a red-hot start.
The Rays will need to come out of the gates at a similar pace to start the second half if they want to get back into the playoff race. Tampa Bay currently sits 5 1/2 games back of the final AL wild card spot and could be in a position to sell off pieces before the trade deadline.
Both of these teams probably welcomed a week off to reset and now desperately need to start the second half on a positive note against a division rival.
Read further for my Rays vs Yankees preview, along with my betting prediction for this AL East opener.
Tampa Bay Rays
Zach Eflin has been a perfectly fine, good-not-great, starting pitcher for the last seven years. This season has been the same thing, owning a 3.99 ERA and a solid 3.24 xERA through 17 starts.
In his second season in Tampa Bay, Eflin continues to be an innings eater, averaging 5.8 innings per start. He has pitched into the sixth inning in 13 of his 17 starts and gone less than five just once.
Pinpoint control has always been Eflin’s strength, and it has been even better this year. He has a 0.82 BB/9 rate this season, the best mark in the entire league. His minuscule 2.2% walk rate is also the best in the league, issuing just nine free passes all year.
Could the average baseball fan name a single player in this Tampa Bay lineup? If they could, it would likely be Randy Arozarena and he has been the team’s seventh or eighth-best hitter.
Isaac Paredes was the team’s lone All-Star representative and leads the squad with a 138 wRC+. This lineup has been much better over the last month and five hitters have a wRC+ above 110.
New York Yankees
New York will come out of the gates with their ace on the mound in Gerrit Cole. The Yankees know if they want to make a run this season, they will need Cole to return to his Cy Young-winning form.
After missing the first three months of the season with an injury, Cole has made just five starts and struggled to a 5.40 ERA. His barrel rate remains in the double-digits and his command hasn’t fully returned.
But Cole has looked better in every start with his final start before the break undoubtedly being his best. Cole allowed just one run across six innings, striking out seven Orioles. His fastball was averaging 96.4 miles per hour, the highest mark this season and back to what he averaged last year.
New York’s offense went from looking deep and loaded early in the season to looking like two stars and a bunch of scrubs. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto continue to mash and form the best one-two punch in baseball. But after that, this lineup has really cooled off.
Even so, the Yankees scored the most runs over the first half and clubbed the second-most home runs. They rank second in wOBA and wRC+. New York brings power and patience, taking more walks than any team.
Rays vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Yankees entered the all-star break on a bit of a skid and will look to come out of the layoff in better form. That starts with Cole. He has looked more and more like an ace in each start since returning from injury.
We know Eflin is going to give Tampa Bay six innings of solid work, and allow 2-3 runs, giving his team a chance to win most of his starts. He has had success against the Yankees, allowing a xwOBA of just .280.
New York has the pitching advantage with Cole, but it is still hard to be 100% confident in his form as he works back from injury.
Offensively, the gap has gotten much closer between these two teams. Since the beginning of June, the Yankees rank 10th in wRC+ and Tampa Bay ranks 11th.
These teams always seem to play close games and while New York is clearly the superior team, I think this price is larger than the gap between them.
Play Tampa Bay at +144.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays +144 (Play to +125) via DraftKings
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