Rays vs Yankees Predictions Wednesday | MLB Odds & Pick Today
Christopher Pasatieri/Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Stroman.
Rays vs Yankees Odds
| Tampa Bay Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-125 | 8 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +155 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+105 | 8 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -190 |
Let's dive into the MLB odds and get into a Rays vs Yankeesprediction in our Wednesday MLB betting preview for July 10.
Rays vs Yankees odds for Wednesday have the Rays as -125 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-110o / -110u) for this AL East matchup at Tropicana Field. For my Rays vs Yankees pick, I'll be looking at a different market — I see value on New York's run line (-1.5).
Right-hander Marcus Stroman takes the mound for New York, while Tampa Bay hands the ball to right-hander Zach Eflin.
See how I think Yankees vs Rays will play out in my Wednesday MLB betting preview below.
Tampa Bay Rays
Eflin has struggled this season with a 4.19 ERA through 16 starts. His underlying metrics are also relatively mediocre as the right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity and strikeout rate. The bullpen that will relieve Eflin is one of the league's worst, ranking in the bottom seven in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
To make matters worse, run support is certainly not guaranteed for this pitching staff. The Rays rank 20th or lower in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs. Those woes are likely to continue against Stroman, a pitcher who this current Tampa lineup has a .178 batting average, .333 slugging percentage and .271 wOBA against in 51 combined career plate appearances.
New York Yankees
The hitting advantage clearly goes to New York. It ranks higher than the Rays in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs. This lineup also has a strong track record against Eflin. In 119 combined career plate appearances against the right-hander, this Yankees lineup boasts a .261 batting average, .432 slugging percentage and .315 wOBA.
Not only does the hitting edge go to New York, but the pitching advantage is also in its favor. Stroman outranks Eflin in ERA, xBA and barrel rate.
There is a way that you could argue that Eflin and Stroman cancel each other out, but even that doesn't sway me off the Yankees in this matchup since they also boast the superior bullpen.
New York's relief staff paces Tampa's in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Rays vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
The only clear advantage that the Rays possess in this matchup is home field. However, the Yankees' north-of-.600 road win percentage far outweighs Tampa's sub-.500 home win percentage.
Even if you argue that the Stroman vs. Eflin matchup is a wash, there's no debating that New York boasts the better lineup and bullpen. So, the last question that remains if you like the Yankees: Would you rather lay -116 on the moneyline or take a shot on the run line at +146?
While both are fine plays, I would rather take a shot on the bigger payout. New York has won in six of Stroman's past eight starts, with all six of those wins coming by at least a two-run margin.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (Play to +140)
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