Red Sox vs. Astros Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-108 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +146 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-108 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -178 |
The third installment of this four-game series gets underway Wednesday evening as the AL West's Houston Astros host the AL East's Boston Red Sox.
Houston won the first two games of this series by a commanding 16-7 combined score.
Will the Astros take care of business once again, or can Boston grab a crucial win on the road?
Here's a look at the odds and my Red Sox vs. Astros betting pick and prediction.
Boston Red Sox
Boston's season is starting to look dire, though there is still a month left in the season.The Red Sox have certainly had their issues this year, but hitting hasn't been a problem.
Boston ranks in the top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS. Also strong at avoiding the strikeout, the Red Sox rank sixth in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Wednesday's projected starting lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 19% this year. Opposing starting pitchers have recorded four or fewer strikeouts in three of Boston's past five games.
That ability to avoid striking out is likely to continue against right-hander Jose Urquidy.
Houston Astros
It has been a tough season for Urquidy, who missed most of the summer with shoulder discomfort. However, even when healthy, things haven't gone smoothly for the right-hander.
Through nine appearances, Urquidy is 2-3 with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as he ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA/xwOBA, xBA and Barrel%.
Furthermore, Urquidy has struggled to amass strikeouts and ranks in the 32nd percentile in K%. You can find his strikeout prop at 4.5 at FanDuel, a total he has failed to surpass in six of his past seven starts.
Red Sox vs. Astros
Prediction & Betting Pick
Urquidy's strikeout woes are likely to continue against the Red Sox, a team loaded with hitters who excel at putting the ball in play. Additionally, it wouldn't be shocking if Urquidy was on a limited pitch count as this will be just his fourth appearance since returning from injury.
That bodes well for the under on his strikeout prop, especially considering that he hasn't thrown more than five innings since April 30. Mix in his poor results this year and I'd be shocked if he lasts long enough to rack up five strikeouts in this game.
