Red Sox vs. Astros Odds
| Red Sox Odds | -105 |
| Astros Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Houston Astros are looking to clinch their third AL pennant in the last five years at home tonight against the Boston Red Sox.
The odds on this one are close, with the home Astros checking in as slight favorites. They have youngster Luis Garcia on the mound against Boston's ace and stopper, Nathan Eovaldi. Boston is looking to force a winner-take-all Game 7, which would take place Saturday night in Houston.
Our MLB analysts are all over this matchup, with a play on the moneyline and two player props to consider.
Here are our best bets for Friday night's ALCS Game 6.
Astros -115
Odds via BetMGM
Sean Zerillo: Game 6 of the ALCS is a rematch from Game 2, in which Boston won 9-5 on the road as a +101 underdog.
Boston re-opened at +108 for the rematch between Nathan Eovaldi (3.37 xERA, 3.48 xFIP, 3.60 SIERA) and Luis Garcia (3.98 xERA, 3.93 xFIP, 3.91 SIERA), but the line has moved closer to a pick’em as of writing.
Eovaldi was effective in Game 2 against the Astros (5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 3 K) but took the loss in a relief appearance in Game 5 (two hits, two walks, and four runs allowed in less than one inning), putting Boston on the brink of elimination.
Typically, Eovaldi leans on his slider (25%) against righties and uses his curveball (27%), cutter (19%) and splitter (17%) against lefties. He was slider-heavy against the Yankees and splitter-heavy against the Rays.
In Game 2, Eovaldi showed a fairly even pitch mix (13 curveballs, 13 cutters, 11 splitters, eight sliders) behind his fastball. In his Game 5 relief appearance, Eovaldi didn’t throw any cutters. Houston excels against all of those pitches, but they had the best offense in baseball against cutters this season.
Garcia has allowed 10 runs through his first two playoff starts (3 2/3 innings), and he left Game 2 early with a knee strain. Before leaving, he generated seven whiffs (four with his slider) in one inning against Boston.
The 24-year-old offers a five-pitch mix (four-seam, cutter, slider, changeup, curveball), with his slider (sixth in MLB on a per-pitch basis) and cutter (fifth) ranking as his best offerings.
As I mentioned before Game 2, Garcia has performed much better against right-handed hitters (.233 wOBA) than lefties (.352 wOBA), and he may struggle with Kyle Schwarber, Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo.
Still, I only project Eovaldi as a slightly better pitcher (by 0.36 runs per game) as compared to Garcia, but I see a comparable advantage for Houston in the bullpen (by 0.30 runs per game).
Moreover, I give a slight edge to Houston both offensively (by 0.23 runs per game) and defensively too (by 0.05 runs per game).
If Garcia is healthy, the Astros are likely undervalued in this game, and the line discount relative to the same pitching matchup in Game 2 provides some actionable value.
Typically, I would need -109 (52.2% implied) to bet the Astros ML, but I raised my target to -115 (53.5% implied) on the Houston ML since we know what the line “should be” based upon the closing odds from Game 2.
Conversely, I would need +128 to bet the Red Sox ML.
I would set my First Five Innings (F5) price targets to -105 for Houston and +122 for Boston.
Luis Garcia Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Odds via BetRivers
Kenny Ducey: The postseason has not been kind to Luis Garcia, with 10 earned runs on seven hits and six walks over 3 ⅔ innings in two starts. So it’s hard to say he’ll have a clean go of it in Game 6. That’s alright, though, because the Houston Astros have everyone aside from Ryan Stanek rested thanks to an eight-inning gem from Framber Valdez in Game 5.
With that, there is no reason whatsoever for Garcia to go deep into this game. He has rarely gone more than five innings this season anyway, so I don’t think he has it in him to hit the over on his strikeout prop.
The Red Sox struck out just five times in that Game 5 loss, and during the ALCS have punched out just 44 times in 202 plate appearances. That equates to a strikeout rate of about 21.8%, which is very low.
You may have doubts about Nate Eovaldi and the Red Sox bullpen, or even about Boston’s offense hanging runs on the board early. I think, no matter what happens with all of the above, it’s a sure bet that Dusty Baker dusts off Cristian Javier, Kendall Graveman and the like to get across the finish line, patting Garcia on the butt somewhere in the third or fourth inning. That will make this under a good bet with the way that Boston is making contact.
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Runs (-105)
Odds via DraftKings
Michael Arinze: The Boston Red Sox lack in pitching, which is why they brought in Nathan Eovaldi in the ninth inning with the score tied 2-2 in Game 4 of the ALCS. That decision ultimately backfired as the Astros touched up Eovaldi for four earned runs in the inning.
Perhaps it was supposed to be an opportunity for him to get some work in since his last outing on Saturday. However, he was in a high-leveraged spot and ended up throwing 24 pitches in the process. Now he'll be back on the mound for Game 6 with just two days of rest.
I'm not sure if Eovaldi's appearance in Game 4 will limit his workload in Game 6. Though I do think he'll have a short leash at any signs of trouble. He'll face a Houston lineup that's had success against him, as evidenced by its .317/.374/.529 line with a .212 ISO. I think the Astros will have their hitting shoes on playing in front of their home crowd.
One player in particular that I'm looking to target is Yordan Álvarez. The Astros' designated hitter is 3-for-4 against Eovaldi, including a double and two runs scored. He sports a .487 on-base percentage this postseason, which means he's reaching base on roughly one out of every two plate appearances.
Álvarez is one of those players who can be in scoring position when he steps inside the batter's box. And whether he does damage on his own, Houston has quality hitters in its lineup to drive him in.
Remember that Álvarez has scored at least one run in seven of Houston's nine playoff games this season. I don't trust the Red Sox pitchers that will follow Eovaldi if he has a short outing. Thus, I like my chances with Álvarez scoring another run on Friday night.
DraftKings list his runs prop of 0.5 at -105 odds. I think this is playable up to -115.
