The Astros have dominated the last two games of this series, winning by a combined score of 18-3.
Despite how anemic the Boston offense has been, I'm prepared to back a Boston bat today. And our Action PRO projections have found value on one in particular.
So, read on for our team's favorite player prop for Game 6 of the ALCS.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 RBIs (+180)
| Red Sox vs. Astros | Red Sox (+100) |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Manager Alex Cora has two 1-through-4 lineup combinations he uses, based on whether the opposing starter is a lefty or a righty. When it's a righty, he'll run with:
- Kyle Schwarber (L)
- Enrique Hernández (R)
- Rafael Devers (L)
- Xander Bogaerts (R)
I expect Cora to put out this lineup card today, as he did in Game 2 when the Sox faced Luis Garcia. When facing a southpaw, Cora will swap those so his lineup goes R/L/R/L.
But that's beside the point. When Bogaerts is batting cleanup, he not only has more opportunities to drive the three guys in, he also just hits better in general.
- 2021 Bogaerts batting 3rd: .271 BA, .789 OPS, 23 RBIs in 47 G (48%)
- 2021 Bogaerts batting 4th: .307 BA, .901 OPS, 56 RBIs in 96 G (58%)
This could be correlated with the fact that Bogaerts hits better against RHPs, posting a .887 OPS against that side compared to a .818 OPS against the left side.
But either way, it's significant enough of an edge for me to bet.
In fact, it's exactly a 16% edge, per our Action PRO report, which has Bogaerts projected at 0.7 RBIs even though we're getting over 0.5 at 2-to-1 odds.
The Boston bats have been cold, but there's clearly positive value here. I'm willing to make a smaller-sized, half-unit wager on Bogaerts to record an RBI in Game 6.
It might be his last opportunity until 2022.
Action PRO Grade: B+
