Red Sox vs. Astros Odds
| Red Sox Odds | +100 |
| Astros Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 9 (+100 / -120) |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Offense has certainly been the story in this series. After a close one-run Game 1 win for the Astros, the next four games have all ben lopsided affairs. Boston blew out the Astros in Games 2 and 3, and Houston ran away with Games 4 and 5.
The first five games of this series have averaged 11.8 runs per game and every game has gone over the total. Is the best bet to continue to attack the total, or is the value on a side as the Astros try to close out the series in Houston?
Red Sox Offense Hopes To Back Up Eovaldi
Game 6 starter Nathan Eovaldi was the center of a controversial call that swung Game 4 and possibly the entire series. Eovaldi came out of the bullpen to pitch the ninth inning in a 2-2 ballgame.
With two outs, he threw a breaking ball that looked like it caught the corner of the zone, which would have resulted in a strikeout to end the innings with the game tied. Instead, it was called a ball and led to an RBI single and eventually a seven-run inning.
You make the call …
When the Red Sox had a chance to get out of a jam in the top of the 9th, umpire Laz Diaz called this pitch by Nathan Eovaldi a ball.
Was this a ball or strike?
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— The Athletic MLB (@TheAthleticMLB) October 20, 2021
Eovaldi will now get the ball for his fourth start of the postseason. The Red Sox are 3-0 in his starts this playoffs and he has posted a 3.45 ERA allowing six runs with 19 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings as a starter.
Unsurprising, two of the best offenses all year have continued to produce this postseason. After finishing the season third in wOBA, the Red Sox lead the playoffs with a .285 average and .872 OPS. They are averaging six runs per game.
Boston has clubbed 22 home runs this poseason, 10 more than Houston, which sits second with 12. Rafael Devers and Enrique Hernández alone have hit 10 home runs, with each hitting five dingers this postseason.
Astros Need More From Garcia
If the Astros are going to advance on Friday, they will need a bounce back performance from 24-year-old Luis Garcia. He has had a rough first two starts this postseason, lasting fewer than three innings and allowing five earned in each outing. Garcia has a fat 24.55 ERA this postseason. That’s not good.
Game 2 for Garcia was cut short when he left the game after one batter in the second inning due to a knee injury. His first full season in the big leagues finished with an 11-8 record and 3.48 ERA in 30 games.
Back in June, Garcia allowed just five hits and one run in a career-high seven inning performance against the Red Sox. The Astros will need Garcia to look more like that than he did on Saturday.
Houston’s offense finished the regular season ranked first in wRC+ and second in wOBA. The Astros had the lowest strikeout rate in the league and generate a ton of walks. They are averaging 6.9 runs per game this postseason, the most of any team, and have scored at least five runs in eight of their nine games.
Depth has been the key for the Astros' lineup. Michael Brantley leads the team in hits this postseason, Jose Altuve leads them in runs, Carlos Correa has the most doubles, Kyle Tucker has the most home runs and RBI, and Yordan Alvarez leads them in on-base percentage.
Red Sox-Astros Pick
How can we not continue to back these two offenses? The over has cashed in each of the first five games of this series and both lineups are just crushing the ball right now.
I do think Boston has a decent starting pitching advantage with Eovaldi on the mound and I would probably play the Red Sox on the first five moneyline if it gets to -110 or better.
However, another reason to like the over is the Boston bullpen has been a nightmare. Of the 47 earned runs the Red Sox have allowed this postseason, 27 have been surrendered by the bullpen. They have allowed 21 runs in the seventh inning or later this postseason, the most by far and three times as many as Houston.
Garcia has really struggled, and Boston should have a ton of confidence against him. There is also the added possibility of him reaggravating that knee injury.
These two teams have the two highest OPS numbers of any postseason teams. They are first and second in runs per game by a wide margin, as well as hits and home runs.
The total on Friday is just 8.5, and not only has at least nine runs been scored in all five games of this series, but one team has cleared this total by themselves in each of the last four games. Until we see something change, I will continue back the over between these two teams.
Pick: Over 8.5, Play to Over 9
