As October rolls on, so does The Action Network MLB player props team. Tonight, we're focusing our efforts on the two starting pitchers, backing one while fading the other.
So far, our postseason prop picks have finished 12-7 for 5.25 units of profit. Tonight, we have three more plays that indicate value, and all of them are being offered at plus money.
So, read on for our three best prop bets for Game 1 of the American League Championship Series.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Astros RHBs vs. Chris Sale
For the sake of full transparency, I am a Red Sox fan. I hope Chris Sale deals tonight, and I pray for these Astros props to lose.
However, I can't ignore Chris Sale's platoon splits this season.
- 2021 Chris Sale vs. LHBs: 1.32 FIP, 2.14 xFIP, .46 WHIP, .149 wOBA
- 2021 Chris Sale vs. RHBs: 4.29 FIP, 3.65 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, .355 wOBA
Because of his struggles against the right side, there are a few Astros batters we can target. However, I've found two that are best suited to take advantage of Sale in Game 1.
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 at DraftKings)
Lifetime against Sale, Jose Altuve is 10-for-31 with a double and three home runs. These hard-hit ABs have resulted in a .606 xSLG.
Moreover, Altuve has cashed his bases prop in 20 of his last 30 games, and in four of seven against Boston. During that stretch of games, Altuve is batting .304 with a 158 wRC+.
Altuve's also slugging .558 with a .932 OPS at home this season, posting a 155 wRC+ at Minute Maid park, compared to a 105 wRC+ on the road.
I think Altuve has a good chance to cash his bases prop today, but need +105 or better to justify taking it.
Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130 at DraftKings):
Similar to Altuve, Alex Bregman has had some success against Sale in the past. Bregman's 4-for-12 with two home runs and four walks in his 16 total PAs facing the Boston southpaw.
Bregman loves hitting lefties, posting a 131 wRC+ against that side compared to a 107 wRC+ against the right side.
Bregman cashed his bases prop in the last three games against Chicago, and he's compiled 15 total bases in his seven games against Boston this season.
For Bregman, I'd like to play this prop at anything better than +110.
Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+125 at DraftKings)
The Red Sox smash lefties while striking out at a very low rate against them (16.1%). However, Framber Valdez has seemed to crack that code.
Valdez made two starts against the Red Sox this season, one in Houston and one in Boston, and compiled 18 strikeouts over 14 1/3 innings. In his career against Boston, he's allowed just a .252 xwOBA, but he's been particularly good against a few Boston batters:
- Hunter Renfroe vs. Valdez: 7 Ks in 12 PAs, 1-for-11, .175 xwOBA
- Bobby Dalbec vs. Valdez: 4 Ks in 6 PAs, 0-for-6, .082 xwOBA
- Xander Bogaerts vs. Valdez: 3 Ks in 7 PAs, 2-for-6, .358 xwOBA
- Alex Verdugo vs. Valdez: 2 Ks in 3 PAs, 0-for-3, .024 xwOBA
While on the season, Valdez has posted a 28.9% called strike plus whiff rate, that number jumped to 35% in both starts against Boston.
Plus, at home this season, Valdez has cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in 10 of his 12 starts. FanGraphs SaberSim projections have Valdez projected at 4.94 strikeouts today, so I'm more than happy to take the plus-money number.
