Red Sox vs. Athletics Odds
| Red Sox Odds | -102 |
| Athletics Odds | -116 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
After a dismal start to this 2022 campaign, Boston will enter Sunday's contest with the opportunity to move back to .500 and claim the series sweep in Oakland.
Sunday's contest will be the hardest to claim of the series as the Athletics will have their ace in Frankie Montas to the mound, and the Red Sox will counter with Rich Hill.
Can Boston's red-hot bats power through this starting pitching mismatch?
Can the Red Sox Hitters Overcome Hill?
42-year-old Red Sox starter Rich Hill has struggled this season as he has an xERA of 4.90 in 39.0 IP.
He has recorded only a single quality start in nine games, and it seems that the lovable legend is a worthy fade candidate moving forward as most of his expected rates suggest the tough times will continue.
Finding the artful outs we have traditionally seen from Hill throughout his excellent career seems tougher and tougher as his velocity continues to trend toward the bottom of the league.
Hill has an average fastball velocity of just 88 since the start of last season, which is fourth-slowest in the MLB among pitchers who have thrown 100 innings.
The Red Sox lineup has been red-hot entering this contest and will offer a stiff test to Frankie Montas. Boston has hit to a league-leading 135 wRC+ and .360 wOBA since May 1st and is showing the offensive prowess we expected of late.
The Red Sox has also been effective vs. right-handed pitching overall this season, hitting to a +107 wRC+ and .320 wOBA.
Boston has officially submitted its lineup card for this contest and will essentially be rolling its A-unit outside of J.D Martinez, who appears to be taking a regular maintenance day.
Can the Athletics Bats Step Up and Avoid the Sweep?
Montas will look to build upon what has been a very strong run of results, as he has allowed just four earned runs in his last 21 and 1/3 innings. He has pitched to an xERA of 2.97 altogether with an elite QOPA of 4.83.
Oakland's lineup has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching so far this season, but the A's do get a far easier than average matchup here against Hill.
The Athletics have hit to just a 79 wRC+ with a .269 wOBA in 1972 total plate appearances this season. They have hit breaking stuff at a better clip than they have the fastball by a decent margin this season, which could be a positive note against Hill.
Red Sox-Athletics Pick
Montas will offer a significant pitching advantage to the Athletics to start this contest, however I think it's still realistic that Boston's red-hot lineup gets to him to some extent and builds off of that as the game wears on.
It's a very reasonable possibility that Oakland gets to Hill for a number of earned runs, who should continue to be an effective fade candidate moving forward.
It's dicey backing Oakland to generate runs in general and any team to get to Montas, but in this particular spot I think we could easily see both of those events happen.
The conditions at the Coliseum also appear to be favorable for hitting, and altogether I see value backing Over 7 at -118 in this game.
Furthermore, I am personally feeling like a single-game parlay punt is in line on this contest, which is more likely to occur should the game be somewhat more high scoring than the over/under suggests.
Oakland to score the first two runs and then go on to lose is +750, while Oakland to win the first 5 innings and lose is +950. I feel either of those could be a fun long-shot to mix in, which should hit a higher clip than the long numbers suggest.
Boston's bullpen is well-rested, and I think it's a more reasonable narrative that the Red Sox are held to a modest total early on while Hill struggles before clawing their way back into the contest than those long numbers suggest.
Pick: Over 7 -118 (Play 7 to -130) | A's to Win First 5 Innings and Lose (+950)
