Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 8.5 -118 / -104 | +1.5 -182 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 8.5 -118 / -104 | -1.5 +150 |
Chris Sale does not look like the perennial Cy Young contender that we once saw in MLB. He has had a troublesome year, going on and off the Boston Red Sox roster with injuries and not really pitching deep into game. He will be tasked with taking on the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday, a team that can hammer left-handed pitching.
The Blue Jays will throw Chris Bassitt against the Red Sox. Bassitt has been a fixture atop the Jays’ pitching rotation. He has been exceptional in the second half and looks to silence an already-slumping lineup in Toronto.
Neither bullpen has been good, but the Jays can at least count on Bassitt to pitch deeper into this game than Sale. With that edge and the edge offensively, backing the Blue Jays on the moneyline is the smart bet in this one.
Boston Red Sox
Sale has a 4.88 ERA against a 3.75 xERA. He limits opponents to an 87.7 average exit velocity and a hard-hit rate of 33.2%. That said, his ground-ball rate of 38.9% is below average. His barrel rate of 8.7% is, too. Expected stats may favor the lefty veteran, but his second-half numbers tell another story. He has a 5.53 ERA since the All-Star break across 27 2/3 innings pitched. Since the beginning of August, he has not thrown more than five innings in a given appearance, and he only hit the five-inning mark twice in six appearances. This does not bode well against the Jays.
The Red Sox hitting has also been underwhelming this month. They carry a 92 wRC+, 7% walk rate, 27% strikeout rate and .729 OPS into this game off of righties in September. Amongst those with more than five plate appearances off of righties this month, they only have five above a .320 xwOBA. The bottom of this lineup is weak, and Bassitt should thrive.
In relief, the Red Sox have also not fared well this month. They have a 5.06 xFIP with a 24.2% strikeout rate and 11.9% walk rate. They do have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP, but Nick Pivetta looks to be getting starts down the stretch and likely will not appear out of the bullpen.
Toronto Blue Jays
Now, Bassitt has been as solid as ever. Yes, his xERA is higher than his ERA at 4.29 against 3.89, but both numbers are fine — especially against a slumping batting order. His barrel rate is 8.9%, but his average exit velocity is 87.6 mph and his hard-hit rate is 35.7%. His ground-ball rate is about average, but his second-half numbers are phenomenal. He has a 3.26 ERA after the All-Star break across 69 innings, so this is the Bassitt expected in this game.
The Blue Jays can also hit better than Boston. They have a 120 wRC+, 12.4% walk rate, 15.2% strikeout rate and .778 OPS off of southpaws this month. They have six bats above a .320 xwOBA this month off of lefties. However, they have three above .400. This will result in far more production off of Sale.
The Blue Jays have a collective xFIP of 4.71 in relief this month with a 23.7% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate. They do only have three relievers under a 4.00 xFIP, but Bassitt can throw deeper into this game than Sale, thus offsetting some potential relief issues.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Betting Pick & Prediction
Overall, Sale is not the pitcher he once was and Bassitt has been incredibly reliable in the second half. Look for the Jays to win this game and do so by manufacturing runs early. If Bassitt can make it past the sixth, he will reduce the strain on the relief corps. Play this to -135.
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