Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | +155 |
| Blue Jays Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Red Sox have surged pasted the Blue Jays recently to grab second place in the American League East Division and the top spot in the American League wild card race.
The Red Sox have won seven in a row with a 42-31 record and a +65 Run Differential, which is the best not including the Yankees in the American League. The Blue Jays have lost seven of their last 10 games, and with a 40-32 record, they sit 1.5 games behind Boston, tied with Tampa Bay for the second wild card spot in the American League. Will the Blue Jays begin to turn things around at home in this matchup, or will the Red Sox stay hot?
Can the Red Sox Get to Gausman?
Kevin Gausman is having a nice season in his first year with the Blue Jays. Gausman has a 3.19 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 28% Strikeout Rate, 5% Walk Rate, and 42% Ground Ball Rate this year. He's had a couple of poor starts recently, though, as he's allowed at least five runs and failed to complete even four innings in each of his last two home starts.
The last time out, however, he threw a quality start on the road, going six innings and allowing just two earned runs while striking out seven against the Chicago White Sox. Gausman's 4.76 ERA at home this year is considerably higher than his 2.00 ERA on the road this year.
The Red Sox offense is a tough test for any pitcher as they have four hitters with ISOs above .190 against right-handed pitching this year in Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Trevor Story. Gausman has already had success against Boston this season as he's allowed just one earned run in 14 innings over two starts while striking out 17 batters and walking none. One of those starts was at home as well.
Will the Slumping Blue Jays Bounce Back?
Connor Seabold will counter Gausman on the mound for the Red Sox. Seabold is replacing Kutter Crawford, who was filling in for Nathan Eovaldi, who's on the injured list with a bad hip. Seabold is making his first appearance in the major leagues this season. He threw three innings in one major league appearance last year and allowed two earned runs.
This season with Triple-A Worcester, Seabold has a 2.09 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 51 strikeouts in 51.2 innings. He has only walked 14 batters, giving him an impressive 3.64 SO/BB ratio.
The Blue Jays have a lot of power in their lineup as George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Alejandro Kirk all have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this year. Seabold might be catching the Blue Jays at the right time here as Toronto's offense had a favorable matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez yesterday and could only muster three runs in the 10-3 loss.
Red Sox-Blue Jays Pick
I like the Red Sox on the run line here at +1.5 (-125). Gausman and the Blue Jays offense are good enough to stay away from the first five innings and the moneyline, but I think the Red Sox can hang around in this one as they might just be catching Toronto at the right time.
As I mentioned earlier, the Blue Jays have lost seven of their last 10 games, and their offense failed to produce against Gonzalez yesterday. In a spot where they're facing a pitcher with good minor league numbers whom they haven't seen before, back the surging Red Sox.
Pick: Boston +1.5 (-125)
