The Los Angeles Dodgers have played comeback kid two games in a row and look for the sweep of the Boston Red Sox on Sunday night.
First, it was Freddie Freeman's eight-inning grand slam in the series opener out of the All-Star break before Kiké Hernández tied the game in the ninth with a solo shot the following day. Will Smith would walk it off with an 11th-inning RBI single.
The Dodgers send left-hander James Paxton to the mound, who has struggled of late. He will be met by Boston right-hander Kutter Crawford, who enters with back-to-back seven-inning shutouts.
Can Boston stave off the late-game heroics of the Dodgers on Sunday night, or will LA finish off this three-game set with another win? Read below for my same game parlay (SGP) for Red Sox vs Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball tonight.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Red Sox vs Dodgers Same Game Parlay: Sunday, July 21
- Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
- Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 RBIs (+165)
- James Paxton Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Parlay Odds: +1000 (bet365)
Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Red Sox vs. Dodgers | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
If you follow Action Network’s baseball content, the majority of the team loves to fade James Paxton — and it makes sense why.
Paxton has really struggled to command the zone this season. He is in the bottom 11% of all pitchers in walk rate and has a career-worst 15.6% strikeout rate. The southpaw struggles to limit hard contact which has led to a decline in pitches inside the zone (48.5%, down from career average of 52).
That leads me to Tyler O’Neill on the Red Sox side of things. He has absolutely crushed left-handed pitching this season (187 wRC+) and is fresh off a two-home run game yesterday.
Not only is he in great form, but he’s the best Boston hitter against southpaws. He also comes in with a .642 slugging percentage — with seven home runs and a 52% extra-base hit rate.
O’Neill is in the top 5% of all hitters in barrel rate and has really become a bright spot in the middle of this Red Sox lineup. Yes, he strikes out a ton, but the boom or bust power is exactly what you want with this 2+ bases prop.
If you want to take it a step further and turn this into more of a lottery ticket, I do like O’Neill’s home run odds (+320) as well.
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 RBIs (+165)
Red Sox vs. Dodgers | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
One of the biggest edges in our Action Network model is Freeman to record an RBI (+11.4% edge). He has recorded an RBI in three of his last five (60%) and nine of his last 19 games (47%).
We know how lethal the Dodgers lineup can be. Even without Mookie Betts leading off, Freeman consistently finds himself in RBI opportunities behind Shohei Ohtani and Will Smith. It’s a plus-matchup for him as well, with a righty on the mound.
Freeman is 2-for-3 against Kutter Crawford in his career and is the second best Dodger from a wRC+ standpoint against righties (170). You can take a guess who is first.
Over 70% of all Freeman’s RBIs have come when facing a righty, where his power is most often seen. He is one of the hardest outs in baseball — 88th percentile in K% — with an elite eye. He also ranks in the 99th percentile in sweet-spot%.
Even though Kutter Crawford has been outstanding his last three starts, he does give up a lot of barrels (8.7%) and is a fly-ball pitcher. Freeman is a hitter that should be able to put the ball in play with runners in scoring position — which is half the battle when betting this prop.
James Paxton Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Red Sox vs. Dodgers | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
We will end with fading Paxton on the biggest edge for the entire baseball slate, per out Action Pro projections, and that’s under 4.5 strikeouts.
The projections have Paxton at 3.9 strikeouts — which, getting his under at plus money — is a substantial edge (+18.1% for +115 at DraftKings). While the Red Sox do strike out a lot against left-handed pitching, Paxton will not overpower them like others can.
Boston will use their platoons to put plenty of right-handed batters at the plate, and the two lefties — Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran — are more than trustworthy options vs. Paxton. This is a number that Paxton has finished under in each of his last three starts and 14-of-17 overall (82.5%).
Continue to fade Paxton who struggles at times with command and has to rely on generating chases or nibbling around the strike zone for his success. Even against a lineup that struggles vs. left-handed pitching at times, Paxton has a proven track record of struggling to pitch deep into games and generate whiffs.
