Red Sox vs Dodgers Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+115 | 8 -120 / +100 | +1.5 -185 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-135 | 8 -120 / +100 | -1.5 +155 |
The Red Sox begin the second half with a two-game lead over Kansas City for the final wild card spot, and have made a strong case to management to buy at ahead of the deadline with their recent 7-3 run of play. Nick Pivetta will start the series opener for Boston, and has struggled to a 4.66 ERA over his last five starts.
Los Angeles comes out of the break with a stranglehold on yet another division title, sitting seven games up on the Diamondbacks and Padres. Gavin Stone accumulated 1.8 WAR with his stellar 3.23 ERA across 96 and 2/3 innings through the first half of the year, and will make his 18th start of the season today.
Let's break down the latest MLB odds and get to my total prediction for Red Sox vs. Dodgers on Friday, July 19.
Red Sox
There are a number of positive indicators which suggest Pivetta could be a pitcher to buy on coming out of the break after a lesser stretch of play. Over his last five starts Pivetta has struck-out 10.24 batters per nine, and an xFIP of 3.65. He owns an xERA of 3.74 this season.
Pivetta has also found considerably better results away from Fenway, which continues to be one of the most favorable parks in baseball for run production. He has pitched to an ERA of 2.97 with a WHIP of only 0.97 in 39 and 1/3 innings on the road this season.
Pivetta holds an elite Stuff+ rating of 136 this season, and a Location+ rating of 103.
The Red Sox have hit to a seventh ranked wRC+ of 114 over the last month of play. They have struck-out 24.7% of the time over that span, and own a 23rd ranked BB/K of 0.31. Boston owns a wRC+ of 126 against right-handed pitchers in specific over that span.
Dodgers
Stone will look to get right here coming off of two poor outings versus elite offenses being the Phillies and Diamondbacks. He pitched to a 3.77 xERA and xFIP of 3.56 altogether this season. Over the last five starts in particular Stone holds an xFIP of 4.08 and ERA of 4.05.
Stone has pitched to a Stuff+ rating of 98 this season, with a Location+ rating of 103.
Stone has been effective in issuing walks 7% of the time, and has allowed a hard-hit rate of only 37% on pitches inside the strike zone, which is the sixth best mark among qualified MLB starters.
The Dodgers have hit to a wRC+ of 117 versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, with an OPS of .765.
Red Sox vs Dodgers Pick & Prediction
A reset may serve well for Pivetta, who entered the break in a tough run in terms of actual results but continues to boast an excellent underlying profile. His stuff continues to rate out exceptionally, and even in his recent downturn he does hold a notably strong xFIP.
At a moneyline of +115, the Red Sox look to be the side holding more value, and this certainly doesn't look like a great spot to lay it with the Dodgers as a favorite coming out of the break.
Gavin Stone has achieved excellent results all season though, and doesn't appear likely for a notable drop off in form moving forward. He has done a great job putting quality starts together on route to nine wins thus far, and will be backed by a well rested bullpen here.
A total of 8.5 with even money to the under appears to be a touch high given the two starters squaring off in this matchup at pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium, especially with both bullpens fully ready to go as well.
