Red Sox vs Mariners Odds & Prediction | Wednesday Betting Preview
Via Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: George Kirby #68 of the Seattle Mariners throws a pitch during the first inning of a game against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 26, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.
Red Sox vs Mariners Odds & Prediction
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +136 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -162 |
The latest Red Sox vs Mariners odds for Wednesday are on the move as the Mariners are -115 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9.5 (-105o / -115u). for the series finale at Fenway Park. However, for my Red Sox vs Mariners pick, I'll be looking at a different market.
Right-hander George Kirby takes the mound for Seattle, while Boston hands the ball to right-hander Brayan Bello.
See how I think Red Sox vs Mariners will play out in my Wednesday MLB betting preview below.
Boston Red Sox
Bello has had a tough go in 2024, and he should be a good fade candidate once again on Wednesday afternoon. Through 19 starts, he possesses a fade-worthy 5.27 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
The right-hander's underlying metrics are equally poor as he ranks in the 22nd percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and Hard-hit Rate. These woes are likely to continue against Seattle, a team Bello possesses a 4.91 ERA against over the past two meetings.
The fade-worthy Red Sox bullpen also looms behind Bello. This season, Boston's relief staff ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA.
Seattle Mariners
The bullpen edge certainly favors Seattle because its relief staff ranks higher than Boston's in ERA and xFIP. Meanwhile, Kirby outranks Bello in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, Strikeout Rate, Walk Rate, Barrel Rate and Hard-hit Rate.
Kirby enters this contest in particularly excellent form, allowing two or fewer runs in 10 of his past 11 starts. The right-hander is 4-2 over that stretch with a commanding 1.88 ERA.
This success is likely to continue against Boston, a team Kirby is 2-0 against over the past three meetings with a dominating 0.98 ERA. The Mariners won all three of those outings.
Red Sox vs. Mariners
Betting Pick & Prediction
The only question regarding backing Seattle in this contest is its lineup. However, the current Mariners lineup boasts a dominating .342 xBA, .608 xSLG and .462 xwOBA through 56 combined career plate appearances against Bello.
Meanwhile, the clear starting pitching and bullpen advantages reside with Seattle.
With that said, I believe that there is more value in the Mariners' run line at +135 than laying -120 on their moneyline. Each of Seattle's past eight wins have come by at least a two-run margin, while 27 of Boston's past 29 losses have come by the same differential.
Finally, we are catching a particularly good line at BetMGM, a price that is 5-10 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+135 at BetMGM | Play to +130)
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