Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds
| Red Sox Odds | -150 |
| Orioles Odds | +130 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM, updated Sunday morning. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Red Sox will look to grab another crucial win from the Orioles on Sunday, as the gap in the American League East between Boston and the Rays, Blue Jays and Yankees has already begun to widen.
Boston will send 29-year old righty Nick Pivetta to the mound, hoping he can sort out some awful early season form and return to what we saw during a solid 2021 campaign.
Baltimore will look to Jordan Lyles, who has started the year with well-below-average results.
We have seen a lot less scoring this season at Camden Yards, but could that change with Sunday's matchup of middling arms?
Boston Red Sox: Are Bats on Verge of Resurgence?
The Red Sox roster still possesses key pieces from last year's batting order, which managed the third-best OPS (.777) and scored the fifth most runs in baseball.
Boston's slow start has been surprising as most expected it to hit effectively yet again. The Red Sox have managed just 3.57 runs per game and own the fifth-worst OPS (.615) in baseball.
As you would expect, there are some underlying numbers that suggest better results are coming. The Red Sox have the league's 21st lowest BABIP at .275, but have the league's 11th highest hard-hit rate at 40.5%.
The Red Sox hit righties very effectively last season, posting a 109 wRC+ and a .336 wOBA (third in baseball). They have struggled against righties this year, but I believe we can safely assume they will rise moving forward.
That could be important entering Sunday's contest with Nick Pivetta on the mound. Pivetta has struggled throughout 16 innings pitched this season and has an xERA of 9.06.
Pivetta has walked 16.7% of batters faced, while being hard-hit 51% of the time. His XSLG of .679 puts him in the bottom 3% of pitchers league-wide.
If there is one defense of Pivetta's abysmal numbers, it would be to consider that he has faced the Blue Jays twice, the Yankees and the Twins.
Baltimore Orioles: Offense Will Need to Give Lyles Support
Baltimore, as you might expect, began the 2022 campaign with some relatively average numbers at the plate. It holds the 21st-best wRC+ rating (90) against right-handed pitching and a .290 WOBA.
The Orioles do hold the 13th best hard-hit rate at 39.7% and a middle of the pack XBA of .250. Baltimore will get a great opportunity to find some more hard hits Sunday against Pivetta, who has been crushed so far this season.
Some strong offensive production could be crucial for the O's as Jordan Lyles takes the mound against a powerful Red Sox order.
Lyles has pitched to an xERA above 5.37 in each of the past three seasons and is currently at a mark of 5.51 through 19.3 innings pitched this year.
Since the start of 2020, Lyles 5.59 ERA is 12th worst league wide among starters with at least 119 total innings. Lyles has pitched to a 43.3% hard-hit rate and a .529 XSLG this year and it does not seem improvement is likely.
American League East lineups have crushed Lyles even worse. He holds a 6.35 ERA inside the division since 2020, with opponents hitting .294 off him.
Red Sox-Orioles Pick
With the talent in this Red Sox lineup, it's no surprise to see that the underlying numbers suggest more offensive success is coming.
Boston gets a good matchup here against Lyles and I think we will see the Red Sox find some of the positive regression they are due for and turn in a strong showing.
However, Pivetta has struggled and this modest Baltimore order should still put together some runs themselves off of him.
It's easy to see both offenses having a strong day at the plate in this contest. I believe a total of 8 at -110 is still a half-run shy of what we should be seeing.
I would rather get this out early and try to get what I believe is a great number at 8 and not 8.5, then confirm lineups closer to the game. Even if a couple big pieces, such as Rafael Devers rest, we still likely won't see a worse number.
Caesars and WynnBet have 8's as of Sunday morning.
Pick: Over 8 -110 (Play 8 to -125)
