Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds
| Red Sox Odds | -110 |
| Orioles Odds | -106 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-110/-110) |
| Time | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
On Sunday, we have the third and final game of this AL East series between the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox. Each team has won a game in this series, providing an entertaining rubber match on ESPN for Sunday Night Baseball.
Below, I will walk through a few picks we will parlay together for a higher payout. When creating a “same-game parlay,” my approach is all or nothing.
While that statement is sort of like “the sky is blue,” let me explain. In my opinion, it’s essential that we find plays that have a strong correlation with each other, as we do not get anything for coming close in a parlay.
If we have multiple plays that have a strong correlation with each other, then we could swing and miss on all of them, and that’s okay. There’s absolutely no difference between going 0-for-3 or 2-for-3 on a parlay.
That said, my goal in creating these parlays is to grab plays that increase the probability of the other plays hitting. For example, if I bet on a bunch of players on one team to generate runs, then it’s more likely that their team would also win that game.
Following this mold, I have four plays below for this featured game between the Red Sox and Orioles. Let’s take a look at the selections.
The Parlay (+711):
- Baltimore Orioles ML (-106)
- Ramon Urias — Record a Run (+110)
- Jorge Mateo — Record an RBI (+220)
Same-Game Parlay — Red Sox vs. Orioles
Baltimore Orioles ML
Baltimore continues to be one of the feel-good stories in baseball this season, and it now has the chance to show how good it is on national TV.
The Orioles enter this game in good form, winning 11 of their last 18 games (61%). Meanwhile, Boston's disappointing season continues to roll on, as it has lost nine of its last 16 contests (56%).
I expect both of these trends to continue in this matchup.
Taking the mound for the Red Sox is right-hander Nick Pivetta. Through 24 starts this season, Pivetta is 9-9 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.
It has been a particularly tough couple of months for Pivetta. Over his last eight starts, he is 1-4 with a 6.64 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.
Based on his metrics, we should not expect much positive regression from Pivetta. This season, he possesses a .325 xwOBA, .247 xBA and .421 xSLG.
We should expect this poor form to continue against Baltimore. Through 106 career plate appearances against Pivetta, this current Orioles roster boasts a .247 BA, .443 SLG and .321 wOBA.
Following Pivetta is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Since July 1, Boston's relief pitching ranks 30th in the league in ERA, 27th in WHIP, 25th in BA, 26th in SLG, 26th in wOBA and 24th in Hard Hit Percentage.
Ramon Urias — Record a Run
If we are fading Boston's pitching staff and backing the Orioles to win the game, then we obviously need them to score runs.
Enter Ramon Urias.
Urias has had a solid season, producing a .252 BA, .424 SLG and .717 OPS. Entering this contest in particularly good form, Urias has scored at least one run in three of his last five games (60%).
We should expect this good play to continue against Pivetta. Through seven career plate appearances against Boston's right-hander, Urias boasts a .352 xBA, .524 xSLG and .381 xwOBA.
When facing right-handed pitchers this season, Urias' splits jump by about four percent (.264/.431/.726) compared to facing left-handers.
Jorge Mateo — Record an RBI
If we are backing Urias to record a run, then we obviously need someone to hit him in (unless he homers). There is no better candidate to back in doing so than the guy who hits right behind Urias in the batting order, Jorge Mateo.
While Mateo has not had the greatest season, perhaps his three-RBI performance against the Red Sox on Friday can jumpstart something. He also had a good game yesterday, racking up two hits and two runs, including a triple.
Mateo should be able to keep it rolling against Pivetta. Through six career plate appearances against Boston's right-hander, Mateo boasts a .369 xBA, .423 xSLG and .347 xwOBA.
When facing right-handed pitchers this season, Mateo's splits jump by about three percent (.237/.411/.695) compared to left-handers.
