Red Sox vs Pirates Predictions
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+130 | 8 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -160 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-155 | 8 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +135 |
The Boston Red Sox have piled on the struggling Pirates in this series, taking the first two games. After dropping their last two matchups, the Pittsburg Pirates are now just 2-8 in their last ten games.
However, the Pirates are a team with a ton of potential, and that remains true in the final game of this series. They will hand the ball to veteran lefty Martin Perez, who's been a pleasant surprise to this point.
The Red Sox may try to piece this one together with their bullpen. Josh Winckowski will be the first arm we see, but the length he'll be asked to go is unknown.
Can the Pirates salvage this series and win the finale? Let's find out in our Red Sox vs Pirates pick and prediction for Sunday.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox may have taken the first two games of this series, but not much credit is due to what they've done offensively. They have outscored the Pirates 12-3 thus far, but their eight-run outburst in the first game is an anomaly when you take a closer look at this club.
Boston comes into this matchup with the ninth-lowest team batting average in the majors at .228. They have shown no signs of improving that, as all of their expected stats are virtually identical.
This afternoon, they'll have to contend with Martin Perez. Perez has been very fortunate in the early going as his xERA is nearly two runs higher than his actual ERA of 2.35.
However, the Red Sox are not the team that will knock him around. Boston has struggled against lefties as they are hitting just .226 as a team with a 29.6% strikeout rate, which is the second-highest rate in baseball.
So, while the Red Sox have shown up on the scoreboard in this series, expect them to take a step back this afternoon,
Pittsburgh Pirates
I spent the above section harping on the Red Sox lineup, but the Pirates have not been much better. They come into this one last in average exit velocity; surprisingly, they are the team with more offensive upside in this matchup.
The Pirates are actually due for positive regression in the power department, as their xSLG and xWOBACON are about 20 points higher than their current numbers. We should see that come to fruition today, as the Red Sox bullpen has been average as a whole.
However, they may even get it going early, as Josh Winckowski has been hit very hard when he's not producing swings and misses. If Pittsburgh can get in good hitter counts, Winckowski is the guy to wake them up, as he ranks in the bottom 20 percent of the league in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed.
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Red Sox vs. Pirates
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Red Sox opting to go with one of their bullpen arms gives us an edge, as the markets for this game are still very young and inefficient.
The Pirates are the side to back here, and they are going to be beatable up until the first pitch. The market has moved in their favor, but not significantly at this point.
Aside from the prices, this is an excellent bounce-back spot for Pittsburgh at home against a Boston team that has overachieved in this series.
Back the Bucs.
