Red Sox vs. Tigers Odds
| Red Sox Odds | -142 |
| Tigers Odds | +120 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Time | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Veteran pitcher Rich Hill will take the mound for the Boston Red Sox after a lackluster performance from Boston against the Detroit Tigers on Monday night in a 3-1 loss. Tyler Alexander will toss for Detroit to round off a southpaw duel in Tuesday’s matinee. Last season, Detroit actually excelled against lefties, while Boston struggled a bit.
Trevor Story was out in Monday’s game for the BoSox with an illness, so his status is questionable for Tuesday’s game. Since he holds a 146 wRC+ versus left-handers in his career, he is a much-needed bonus for a lineup that barely added depth elsewhere.
Sure, Hill has the experience, but does he provide enough value to take the Red Sox in this game as favorites?
Red Sox Off to a Slow Start
Boston comes into this game 1-3 now, and although it is tough to call the fifth game of the season a “must win,” it would not hurt. Having Story out another day would not be the best news they have received. In 2021, Boston had a 109 wRC+ against righties. That number dwindled to almost average at 102 against lefties. This plays into Alexander’s hands. Story basically needs to play for Boston to look any better versus southpaws in this game.
Rich Hill may be 42-years-old, but he still does not induce much hard contact. Last season he ranked in the 79th percentile in Hard-Hit Percentage. That said, he loves to default to his patented curveball. He throws it around 44% of the time, and Detroit did well on curves from southpaws last season.
Eric Haase in particular managed a .506 xwOBA on this type of pitch. Victor Reyes, Akil Baddoo, Miguel Cabrera, and Jeimer Candelario also thrived on this pitch. New addition Javy Báez held an average Exit Velocity of 96.7 on lefty curveballs. This only leaves about three hitters who might struggle with Hill. He could be bounced early.
This leads to the Boston bullpen. Garrett Whitlock could find himself coming in if Hill gets tagged early. This will at least even the playing field, as Detroit does not hit righties as well. Essentially, the Red Sox need to bank on Hill to throw four strong innings to hand it off to the righties in the bullpen. There are plenty.
Alexander and the Tigers Should Have an Edge Early
On the other hand, this is where the issues may arise for Detroit as the Tigers' bullpen is pretty weak. Gregory Soto is solid at the back-end, but between Alexander and the prolific fastball from Soto, they need to bandage up some innings in between.
This is the main area of concern against a strong Boston lineup. Much like the Red Sox, the rest of the bullpen is pretty much righties (aside from Andrew Chafin, who is on the Injured List). As stated above, Boston can hit righties far better, so Manager A.J. Hinch will need at least five out of Alexander to eat into his team’s most noteworthy weakness.
Bobby Dalbec, Enrique Hernández, and Rafael Devers are the only Red Sox hitters who had a .340+ xwOBA against similar-speed lefty cutters and sinkers as Alexander’s. This is why Story is so critical for the Boston lineup on Tuesday. Nonetheless, Detroit likely has the advantage early. They should be able to hold a lead. Luckily, Alexander does not walk many batters (6.2% in 2021), so he will at least get the ball over the plate.
Red Sox-Tigers Pick
Detroit should have an even spread in this game, especially if Trevor Story is sidelined again. Alexander and Hill are virtually a wash on the bump, and Boston’s bullpen is not that incredible that it warrants a heavy-favorite spread.
Tyler Alexander should do well on the hill against this Boston lineup, and his wOBA was stronger in 2021 the third time through the order than it is the first (.190 versus .320).
If he can hand the ball over to the back-end of the Tigers’ bullpen, they should win the game. Take the Tigers at +120, and play to +105.
Pick: Detroit Tigers +120 | Play to +105
