Once again we find ourselves with a Boston Red Sox–New York Yankees primetime Sunday night bout. Both teams should throw the kitchen sink following the Yankees' 14-4 win on Saturday afternoon where few high-leverage arms pitched in the blowout.
The Yankees send rookie right-hander Luis Gil to the mound, and he is looking to get on track after an abysmal last few starts. The once potential Cy Young has really struggled as the season has progressed. The Red Sox counter with Kutter Crawford, who has registered a quality start in each of his last four appearances.
Can the Yankees continue their offensive surge from Saturday, or will the Red Sox put a swift end to that behind Crawford?
Here's a long-shot same-game parlay for Red Sox vs Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Red Sox vs Yankees MLB Parlay: Sunday Night Baseball SGP (July 7)
- Luis Gil Under 16.5 Outs (-125)
- Anthony Volpe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+190)
- David Hamilton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Parlay Odds: +1400 (bet365)
Luis Gil
Under 16.5 Outs (-125)
Luis Gil has shown some cracks in recent weeks. The once Rookie of the Year and Cy Young contender has thrown just 9 2/3 innings of 16-run ball over his last three starts as the last quality start Gil registered was over a month ago.
He has never thrown more than 96 innings in the minor leagues, so we may very well see some conservatism down the stretch here as the Yankees look to keep their young righty healthy.
Because of this, I'm looking to fade Gil on his outs prop. This was once a number that Gil would crush at a consistent rate, but he's been under 16.5 outs in each of his last four starts. That includes a 104-pitch outing against the Red Sox on June 14th, where he gave up just one run over five innings.
Familiarity should work against Gil here as well as the Yankees having a fully-rested bullpen at their disposal, which could lead to a short leash. Despite Gerrit Cole not pitching deep into Saturday's game, a dominant performance from the offense allowed Aaron Boone to use just Tim Hill and Josh Maciejewski in the bullpen to finish off Boston over 4 2/3 combined innings.
While Gil is a flame-throwing righty with strong Stuff+ numbers (111), he does have some command issues. Gil's 12.9% Walk Rate ranks in the bottom 7% of all pitchers, and he doesn't generate many chases, either. The Red Sox walked four times against Gil in their last matchup.
I'll continue to fade Gil here in another tough matchup against his division rival under the bright Sunday night lights. There are just too many outs for a potential early pull for Gil in this spot.
Anthony Volpe
Over 1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Let's get into a couple of hitter props to round out this Red Sox-Yankees same-game parlay. Oddly enough, when diving deeper into Kutter Crawford, the right-hander actually has reverse splits.
Left-handed hitters have just a .193 average against Crawford with a .601 OPS. While they have two more home runs (8) than right-handed hitters, their numbers everywhere else are drastically worse (.247 average, .722 OPS).
Keeping this in mind and avoiding Aaron Judge's short price on his 2+ bases prop, I'm buying low on a slumping Yankee — Anthony Volpe.
I get it — he's been under fire for his struggles of late, even so much so that Ben Rice hit leadoff yesterday. But given Crawford's splits, we could very well see Volpe back in that one hole. Then when you dig into the numbers, Volpe could very well turn the ship around.
Volpe has struck out 6% less this season and has seen his xBA (.249) rise. The issue has been a lack of barrels because most of his balls in play have been weakly hit.
That rolling graph from FanGraphs shows the decline after Volpe's peak about 1-2 months into the season, but of late, both his Hard-hit Rate and Fly-ball Rate have risen.
Despite a .136 average in July, he's been over 1.5 total bases in two of five games. Against right-handed pitching in general, Volpe has a 32% Extra-base Hit Rate, which is actually much worse against southpaws at 26%.
It's ugly — if you go to Aaron Judge here, I wouldn't blame you — but I'm going to look to juice the parlay up a bit with Volpe.
David Hamilton
Over 1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Rather than targeting Rafael Devers, who has walked in two of five plate appearances against Gil this season, I'm looking to buy another slumping bat in David Hamilton here.
Hamilton should be batting second in this lineup on Sunday and see at the minimum four at-bats. He isn't a power-hitting lefty; rather Hamilton is extremely disciplined at the plate and doesn't chase out of the zone (21.8%, 87th percentile). His Sweet-spot Rate of 42.2% is also in the top 3% of all hitters.
As expected, he also has seen right-handed pitching extremely well. The rookie is hitting .278 with a .792 OPS against righties, and his Extra-base Hit Rate has neared 40%, too.
Oddly enough, Hamilton has also been much better away from Fenway Park. The lefty has a .303 average and .895 OPS on the road compared to a .254 average and .782 OPS at home.
Looking back at Hamilton's three at-bats against Gil, all three went for flyouts. Two of those registered 94+ mph off the bat, with his longest traveling 377 feet in the fifth inning. Contact is key against a hard-throwing righty like Gil.
