Red Sox vs Yankees Odds & Moneyline Prediction (7/5)
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+120 | 8 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -175 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-142 | 8 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +145 |
Tanner Houck will take the bump on the road for the Boston Red Sox against the rival New York Yankees on Friday at Yankee Stadium.
Houck has been great this year and has done a tremendous job of limiting walks and racking up strikeouts. Negative regression could come his way via hard contact, but he has also kept the ball on the ground, which can help against the likes of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.
Nestor Cortes gets the start for the Yankees. The veteran southpaw has also been great this year after poor results in 2023. However, he has been allowing more hard contact and fly balls, which could be an issue.
Since the Sox have hit lefties so well, the fireworks could be on in New York on Friday. Find out how I'm betting this AL East clash in my MLB betting preview below, which includes my Red Sox vs Yankees moneyline prediction.
Boston Red Sox
Houck has a 2.67 ERA against a 3.68 xERA. Ground-ball pitchers who yield hard contact can be prone to an increase in xERA.
However, at times, they can be regression-proof because the ball is rarely in the air. Houck's Average Exit Velocity is a touch above 90 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 14th percentile. Since his strikeout rate is around 24%, and he only walks hitters at a 4.3% clip, which is a massive improvement from 2023, he should work well against the majority of the Yankees' hitters.
The Red Sox lineup is much more potent against left-handed pitchers. They have a 137 wRC+, a 10% walk rate and a 26.5% strikeout rate against lefties in the last month. They have eight batters above a .315 xwOBA, so much of the batting order can get the job done.
In addition, Cortes does not rack up many strikeouts, so missing the ball may not be as much of a concern as it would be against harder-throwing southpaws.
The Red Sox bullpen has an xFIP under 4.00 as a unit. That said, they only have four options under the 4.00 mark. Potential strain on Boston's relievers shouldn't be an issue considering Houck limits walks and routinely pitches deep into games — he's pitched at least six innings in 13 of his 17 starts this season.
New York Yankees
Cortes has a 3.51 ERA against a 3.21 xERA. Like Houck, his Average Exit Velocity is a little above 90 mph. His Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 9th percentile and his ground-ball rate is in the 6th percentile.
Boston's offense has ranked in the middle of the pack in ground-ball rate in the last month against lefties, but this can be a concern for Cortes. On the other hand, he strikes out about 23% of hitters and limits walks to 4.5%.
The Yankees have an extremely top-heavy lineup. Giancarlo Stanton hit the Injured List with a hamstring strain. Otherwise, the Yanks have five active hitters with a .314+ xwOBA.
In the last month, this had led to a 109 wRC+, a 10.6% walk rate and a 24.1% strikeout rate. Essentially, they have similar numbers to the Red Sox when it comes to walking and striking out, but Boston’s lineup is stronger top to bottom.
Judge and Soto carry the brunt of the load for New York, but if Houck keeps the ball on the ground, he should excel against most the Yankees' lineup.
The Yankees’ bullpen has been a thorn in their side, too. They have five active arms under a 4.00 xFIP. However, if Cortes is allowing fly balls and hard contact, the bullpen edge could shift to Boston. Overall, the Yanks own a 4.40 xFIP in the last month.
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
Keeping the ball on the ground is they key to this game for both pitching staffs. Between the two starters, Houck does a much better job of this — thus, I like Boston in this game.
Boston's lineup has also hammered lefties lately so Cortes is in a tough spot. With the bullpen being basically a wash between the two, the Sox moneyline can be played from +120 to -105.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+120 to -105)
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