Red Sox vs Yankees Friday Odds, Pick & Prediction
Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Gil.
Red Sox vs Yankees Friday Odds, Pick & Prediction
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+130 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -105 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-155 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 -115 |
Baseball’s biggest rivalry will reunite for the first time this season as the New York Yankees ship up to Boston for a meeting with the Red Sox on Friday at Fenway Park.
Boston is coming off a series victory against Philadelphia to climb .500, but it still sits 13 games behind the red-hot Yankees. New York has sat atop the AL East standings since Opening Day and enters Friday winners of 12 of its last 15 games.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds have the Yankees as -155 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9.5 (+100o / -120u) as AL Rookie of the Year favorite Luis Gil squares off against Brayan Bello. Find my Red Sox vs Yankees prediction in my betting preview of this AL East clash below.
Editor's Note: First pitch for the Red Sox vs Yankees on Friday is delayed due to inclement weather.
Gil has been the breakout star of the 2024 season. With the reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole sidelined, Gil has stepped up and now is in contention for the award while also being the odds-on favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year.
While he has always had a ton of talent, injuries have caused Gil to make just seven starts over the last three years. Now fully healthy, he has burst onto the scene with an 8-1 record and 2.04 ERA in 13 starts this year. He sits second in the AL in ERA.
Gil uses just three pitches but they have all been terrific. His fastball sits nearly 97 miles-per-hour and he pairs it with a slider and a brilliant changeup. All three pitches have held opponents under a .140 average this season.
His biggest issue has always been command and he has a walk rate of nearly 12%. However, he's able to limit the damage by producing weak contact and generating a 30.7% strikeout rate.
The Bronx Bombers have been firing on all cylinders, especially as of late. Over the last month, New York leads the league in runs, wOBA, and wRC+. The biggest reason for that has been the dynamic duo of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, who rank first and second in the league in OPS.
Judge is on a different planet right now at the plate. He is hitting .417 with a 1.538 OPS over the last two weeks and has 16 runs and 23 RBI in his last 13 games. Not only that, he has four home runs in his last six games, eight in his last 13, and 15 in the last 27. He is the best hitter on the planet and it’s not even close.
Brayan Bello will be tasked with slowing down the potent Yankees' offense and that could prove difficult given his current form. Bello has allowed at least three runs in five straight games and has a 6.75 ERA over that stretch with 4.05 BB/9.
On the season as a whole Bello has a 4.78 ERA and 4.33 xERA, the bottom third of the league. Opponents have a .330 wOBA against Bello and a 42.1% hard-hit rate. Both Bello’s strikeout rate and walks allowed are in the bottom half of the league with a K-BB% of just 11.9%.
Boston’s offense has probably been better than most people expected coming into the year given the names in this lineup. But they rank eighth in the league in wOBA and have gotten better production from their young players than projected. The Red Sox have eight regulars with a wRC+ above 115.
Rafael Devers is still the top dog in the lineup but the Sox have gotten a break season from Jarren Duran as well as strong contributions from Connor Wong, Rob Refsnyder, and Tyler O’Neill.
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
Gil has been nails for the Yankees this season and exactly what they needed. He has a 2.64 xERA and has allowed more than one run just once in his last eight starts. Gil has elite stuff that he uses to generate strikeouts and limit hard contact.
On the other side, Bello has really struggled recently. He has allowed at least three runs in each of the last five outings, and has had issues with command as well as being hit hard.
Bello's most used pitch is a sinker, which he throws more than 40% of the time. He relies on generating ground balls, but opponents have crushed his go-to pitch. Teams are hitting .337 with a .412 wOBA against Bello’s sinker.
Do you know who hits sinkers better than any team in the league by a pretty wide margin? The New York Yankees.
Soto and Judge crush sinkers, both ranking top five in the league against them. Judge has a .582 wOBA and Soto has a .564 wOBA against sinkers this season. Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton both hit sinkers really well too.
This is a great matchup for the Yankees bats to continue mashing the ball while Gil has been terrific on the mound for New York. Boston has the better bullpen and was able to use just one reliever in last night’s game so it will be at full strength.
I like the Yankees to win the game, but I’d rather back them to jump out to an early lead with Gil over Bello.
Pick: Yankees First Five Innings -145 (Play to -160) via DraftKings
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