Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction Saturday | MLB Odds & Picks
Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images. Pictured: Gerrit Cole
Red Sox vs Yankees Odds
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 9 -115o / -105u | +170 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 9 -115o / -105u | -205 |
Although the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry lacks the pure hatred it once had in the early-mid 2000’s, it’s still viewed as one of the top rivalries in MLB.
The Friday series opener was pretty uneventful until Masataka Yoshida sent the game to extra innings with a ninth-inning tank off Clay Holmes; Ceddanne Rafaela provided the game-winning blow with a two-run homer in the 10th inning.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds for Saturday have New York installed as a -205 moneyline favorite with an over/under of 9 (-115o /-115u). Can Gerrit Cole get the Yankees back on the winning track? Find out in my Saturday Red Sox vs Yankees preview below.
Boston Red Sox
Although the Red Sox offense is just 18th in wRC+ since June 19th, the vibes around them seem a lot better than the vibes in the Bronx. They went from an afterthought in the playoff discussion to firmly holding a wild card position, and jockeying for the Yankees' spot in the A.L. East.
The Red Sox offense is also carried by the top of the order — potential All-Star Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, and Tyler O'Neill. Their lineup is dangerous if Duran sets the tone by getting on base, but it could be a long night if Cole shuts him down. That lineup doesn't strike out often, just 22% of the time since June 19th, and owns the 10th-highest slugging percentage in baseball.
Josh Winckowski takes the mound for the Red Sox for his fourth start of the year after beginning the year as a high-leverage bullpen arm. He appeared in 60 games as the regular 7th-inning bridge to Kenley Jansen a year ago and now he's a trustworthy option in the Red Sox rotation.
The 26-year-old right-hander owns a 2.80 ERA and 3.58 FIP this year. He's more of a ground ball pitcher, ranking in the 87th percentile in GB rate and just 21st percentile in K rate. His pitch mix features a sinker, cutter, slider and changeup. There aren't a lot of swing-and-miss pitches in his arsenal since so locating his pitches could dictate whether he shuts down the Yankees or gets shut down himself.
New York Yankees
The Yankees went from leading the American League East by four games to losing the lead and now fighting hard to maintain second place. They lost 16 of their past 20 games prior to this Red Sox series; so getting right in a hurry is of paramount importance for the Bronx Bombers.
Concerns surrounded reigning A.L. Cy Young Gerrit Cole after he allowed four homers and struck out zero batters in four innings against the Mets 10 days ago. The larger issue for Cole was the lack of velocity, sitting around 93-96 for most of the game. I don't think it's a real concern moving forward, though.
Cole finally looked like himself in his last start, throwing five strong innings — for the first time this year, with six strikeouts and one run. I think Cole will expand on his great start and keep rolling. It might take time for Cole to round into Cy Young form again, but he’s still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the build-up from an injury shouldn’t make people forget that.
The Yankees lineup will never have poor stats as long as Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are hitting — who rarely struggle. It's been a tough past three weeks for the Yankees offense, but the success from Soto and Judge propelled them to the 13th-best wRC+ in MLB since June 19th. However, it seems like teams plan on pitching around the two stars, and rightfully so. They also moved rookie lefty Ben Rice to the leadoff spot in place of Anthony Volpe, who owns 44 wRC+ since June 19th.
The top three batters in the order — Judge (247 wRC+), Soto (165 wRC+), and Rice (128 wRC+) are the lone Yankees with wRC+ above 100 in that span. Gleyber Torres trails with an 86 wRC+, but he left the opening game of the series with a nagging groin issue flaring up. The Yankees' offensive woes will continue unless DJ LeMahieu, Alex Verdugo, and Volpe start hitting, forcing opponents to throw Judge and Soto strikes.
The good thing is the Yankees' core offensive philosophies remain intact. They still walk at the highest rate in baseball (11%) and strike out the ninth fewest (21%) since June 19th.
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
I think the offensive woes continue in game two of this rivalry showdown.
The Yankees scored four of fewer runs in four consecutive games, and the Red Sox offense struggled last night. In large part, I think Cole bounces back and turns into a dominant arm for the Yankees again, and Winckowski can limit this Yankees lineup.
Pick: Under 9 (-105) via FanDuel
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