Boston Red Sox
| Betting Overview | |
|---|---|
| Divisional Odds | +1800 |
| Pennant Odds | +3000 |
| World Series Odds | +6000 |
| Regular Season Wins | 78.5 |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +310 / No -420 |
Odds via FanDuel. For updated MLB futures all season long, click here.
Best Bet: Over 78.5 Wins
Tanner McGrath: The projections don’t like it, and the public doesn’t like it, but here’s my case for why the Red Sox can be a .500 ball club this year.
The biggest issue with the 2022 Red Sox was an inability to close games. The Sox blew a preposterous 28 saves out of 65 opportunities, many of which came in divisional games, where the Red Sox went an abysmal 26-50.
The most obvious bullpen addition is Kenley Jansen, who immediately steps in and solves the closer problem that Alex Cora was trying to patch together all season. But don’t overlook the additions of Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez (although the latter may be hurt to start the year), as either is better than whatever the Sox were throwing out in the final frames last season.
Meanwhile, the offense will certainly take a step back sans Xander Bogaerts. However, it’s often overlooked how good the Red Sox offense was last year, finishing the year with the league’s most doubles and top-10 in hard-hit and barrel rates.
So, I don’t think it’ll be as bad as everyone makes it out to be.
I’m also betting on the Red Sox upside.
First, Tristan Casas could turn into an elite MLB first baseman. He profiles as one, and ZiPS projects him with a 121 wRC+ this year.
Second, Brayan Bello has better stuff than 90% of big-league pitchers, as his fastball-changeup mix is elite at forcing whiffs and weak contact. He struggled to start the season but ended with a 2.59 ERA over his final six starts. He could carry that momentum into this season.
Finally, Justin Turner and Masataka Yoshida shouldn’t be overlooked. Both profile as three-win batters and could collectively compensate for Bogaerts’ absence, especially with both batting directly behind Rafael Devers.
Ultimately, this squad may surprise people and the projections. I expect the Sox to win a few more games than last year and surge over the 78.5-win total, finishing right in the thick of the wildcard race.
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