Reds vs Dodgers Odds
| Cincinnati Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+250 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -124 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-310 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 -148 |
The Cincinnati Reds (18-25) and Los Angeles Dodgers (29-16) kick off a four-game set at Dodger Stadium on Thursday.
The Dodgers are coming off a series win against the rival San Francisco Giants, while Cincinnati hasn't won a series in almost a month.
Tyler Glasnow, an NL Cy Young Award candidate, gets the start for the Dodgers. He has been striking out almost everyone, but the betting market may have peaked on him, which leaves an opportunity to go against the grain.
Reds vs Giants odds have the Dodgers listed as heavy -310 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 7.5. Find my Reds vs Dodgers prediction in my MLB betting preview below.
Cincinnati Reds
Nick Lodolo was supposed to be the Reds starter on Thursday but landed on the 15-day IL with a groin strain. Instead, this will likely be a bullpen game from the Reds, with Brent Suter as the probable opener.
Suter was formerly a starter for the Brewers but has pitched primarily out of the bullpen since 2018. He's been largely effective in relief. This season, his first with Cincinnati, he has a 3.86 ERA over 25 innings pitched with 23 strikeouts.
Suter is elite at limiting hard contact. He ranks in the 89th percentile among qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed and 88th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He has been among the best pitchers in these categories since his major league debut.
The Reds strike out 25.3% of the time, the league's fifth-highest mark. Among MLB lineups, Cincinnati ranks 25th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+. They also don’t hit the ball particularly hard, ranking 27th in exit velocity, 18th in barrel rate, and 20th in hard-hit rate.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tyler Glasnow will take the mound tonight for the Dodgers, making his 10th start of the year. The righty was one of LA’s biggest acquisitions this offseason and has lived up to the billing.
Glasnow has thrown 57 innings this year with a 2.53 ERA, 2.39 expected ERA, and 2.48 FIP. He's struck out an impressive 73 batters, which leads the league. His 33.6% strikeout rate is the second-highest in baseball among qualifying pitchers. He ranks seventh among qualified pitchers in Stuff+, boasting one of the best repertoires in the majors.
By most metrics, Glasnow is dominant. His one flaw has been his propensity to allow hard contact to those who make contact. He ranks in the 48th percentile among qualified pitchers in average exit velocity allowed, 42nd percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 52nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.
Reds vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
It’s difficult to handicap bullpen games like this, but Suter is a good pitcher and will likely be effective in his couple of innings of work. It remains to be seen whether the rest of the Cincinnati bullpen could follow his lead, so I will shy away from any bets on this side or total.
Glasnow is a tremendous pitcher, so fading him is difficult, but I think his strikeout prop has some value tonight. He's struck out nine or more in his past four starts, but I’m betting the Reds will buck that trend.
My model set this total at 8 strikeouts for Glasnow and sets under 8.5 at -146, representing a 5.9% edge over the current market price.
I would bet the under to -120 but wouldn’t go past that, as Glasnow could easily blow through 8.5 Ks despite it being the highest strikeout total on the board.
Pick: Tyler Glasnow Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-115 | Play to -120)
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