Reds vs. Phillies Prediction
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+164 | 7.5 -110/-110 | +1.5 -137 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-196 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +114 |
Right off the bat, the forecast does not appear to be working in our favor, so I would not be shocked to see the game moved to Thursday afternoon. If that is the case, the Cincinnati Reds will send right-hander Frankie Montas to the bump against the Philadelphia Phillies' ace Zack Wheeler.
Montas had a solid first start last week against the Nationals, and he is looking to maintain consistency with his new team through the 2024 campaign. Wheeler threw six innings of shutout baseball without allowing a free pass against the Braves last time out.
Let's break down both teams below to uncover the best betting angle in my Reds vs. Phillies prediction.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds were on a short list of teams that people were the most excited to watch entering the 2024 season, and they've already shown the reasons why. With a roster full of young talent, they are fully in the mix to win the NL Central.
Montas gets the ball for the Reds and was one of the team's most underrated additions during the offseason. He practically missed the entire 2023 season due to injury but now gets a chance with a good baseball team to be the anchor of their rotation.
Before he was injured, Montas had a shaky 2022 season between his time with the A's and Yankees, but he compiled great strikeout numbers from 2020-2021. He averaged roughly 10 K/9 and was always on the wrong side of the luck department.
The Phillies have limited experience against Montas, due to him spending his entire career in the American League. The only position players on their roster with more than 10 at-bats against him are Nick Castellanos and Whit Merrifield.
Merrifield is hitting .444 against Montas, but other than that, the majority of the team's stats are too small of a sample size to factor into the handicap. Montas has swing-and-miss stuff and faces a Phillies team that tends to strike out often.
Offensively, there is some experience against Wheeler in the past. Elly De La Cruz and Christian Encarnacion-Strand do not have any career appearances against the right-hander, so there could be a lot of guessing games at the plate.
Even if the game gets moved to Thursday, it should still be a miserable day outside. It is not going to be a hitter-friendly game, so with Montas on the mound, I do not expect much run support in an already tough matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies
Despite not being as dominant throughout the 2023 season, Zack Wheeler put together another strong season. His 3.61 ERA was not indicative of how well he pitched.
I like the matchup for Wheeler against a Reds team that is prone to the strikeout. Wheeler compiled yet another 10 K/9 campaign, and there is no suggestion that he is slowing down anytime soon.
Even after Bryce Harper's electric three-home-run performance last night, I am still concerned with the Phillies offense. It is early, but they are hitting under .230 as a team.
Montas is not an easy matchup for them, and I could see their bats remaining cold. I find myself trusting the Phillies bullpen over the Reds' bullpen, but I do not see enough value in the number to back them here.
Reds vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
This seems like a great spot to take a first-five-innings under. If the Reds bullpen was more stable, I would like the full-game under instead.
Whether the game gets played during a slight drizzle on Wednesday or Thursday, it will not be optimal hitting conditions for either club. Montas and Wheeler are more than capable of tossing gems on the mound.
It is never fun fading either of these two offenses, but I fully expect a pitching duel in the rubber match of this series.
