Reds vs Rays Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-120 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +145 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+100 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -175 |
The Rays avenged their brutal extra-innings loss on Friday by shutting down the Reds' offense for a 4-0 win on Saturday. Now, in the final game of this series, the Reds will send their ace to the mound.
My Reds vs Rays pick and moneyline prediction is below.
Cincinnati Reds
At just 24-years-old, Hunter Greene is officially the centerpiece of the Reds' rotation. Greene, who notched his first All-Star selection this year, is pitching to a 3.14 ERA and a 3.09 xERA with a slightly elevated 3.57 FIP.
Just how electric is Greene’s stuff? Well Stuff+ isn’t a perfect representation of production, but Greene’s 124 stuff + shows just how scary it is to face the hard-throwing right-hander.
Greene has thrown at least six innings in each of his past three starts and notched seven or more strikeouts, while allowing three or fewer hits, in each.
The Reds offense' ranks 10th with a 109+ wRC+ in July. That's largely thanks to a dazzling .473 slugging percentage (third in MLB this month). The Reds have the third-worst strikeout percentage this month (27%), but it's doubtful that they'll run into much trouble against the Rays in this spot.
For the year, the Reds' offense has posted a 92 wRC+, which ranks 24th in baseball.
Which version of the Reds should we expect moving forward? Probably something in the middle. This isn't a top-10 offense, but the bats should remain reliable as long as Elly De La Cruz continues performing like a superstar, and Jonathan India and Spencer Steer protect the top of the order. De La Cruz is the only Reds hitter with an OPS above .800 this season.
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Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are known for doing things differently, and Kevin Cash has been cryptic about Sunday's starter.
Five days ago, the Rays went with Shawn Armstrong for two innings. He was then followed by southpaw Tyler Alexander for three innings. So, the Rays may lean in that direction again.
Armstrong has had his fair share of unlucky results. His 5.64 ERA with a 3.81 FIP suggests positive regression is looming. If Armstrong can get his 3.83 walks per nine innings under control, he could be a reliable pitcher.
Alexander spent the past two months in the minors before returning this week. He has a 5.89 ERA and a 5.09 FIP.
The Rays' lineup lost a major power source with Randy Arozarena being dealt to the Mariners. Still, Tampa Bay has plenty of suitable bats that should keep it above water. Headlining the lineup is the trio of Yandy Diaz (110 wRC+), Isaac Paredes (132 wRC+) and Brandon Lowe (143 wRC+)
The Rays rank 11th in wRC+ in July, but that's counting Arozarena, so that number isn't an accurate representation of the current lineup.
One of the downsides to the Rays' lineup is depth. Four of the nine regulars boast an OPS below .700, and Lowe is the only one with an OPS over .800.
Reds vs. Rays
Betting Pick & Prediction
I just can't back the grouping of pitchers the Rays will trot out against one of the rising stars in the game.
Greene will likely cruise through six or seven innings against this right-handed-heavy lineup. Meanwhile, Cash will have to piece together the Rays' pitchers. Even on the road, I have to back Greene and the Reds here.
Pick: Reds Moneyline
