The Yankees are beginning to find their groove again and just took two of three in Toronto behind some excellent offensive showings. Now, they'll hope Luis Gil can turn things around and put forth a good outing against the Cincinnati Reds as they begin a six-game homestand.
Cincinnati will give troubled right-hander Graham Ashcraft, whose issues this season have been so glaring that he earned a demotion back to Triple-A, the start on Tuesday night.
What's the best way to attack this one? Let's build a same-game parlay for Reds vs. Yankees on Tuesday night.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Reds vs. Yankees MLB Same-Game Parlay: Tuesday SGP (July 2)
- Yankees Moneyline (-210)
- Juan Soto 2+ Total Bases (+110)
- Anthony Volpe To Record A Stolen Base (+300)
Parlay Odds: +909 (DraftKings)
Yankees Moneyline (-210)
Gil should be able to turn things around against the Reds. He's a fly-ball pitcher, who calls the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium home, and will match up against an offense that likes to put the ball in the air, but the splits tell something of a different story.
Cincinnati is last in baseball when it comes to hitting fly balls with a hit in just 20.6% of its at-bats, and it's still last when you filter by OPS. On top of that, this team has walked in fewer than 6% of its plate appearances over the past two weeks, so the frequent issues Gil has with free passes shouldn't be quite as glaring here.
The Yankees, meanwhile, have begun to break out at the plate over the past few games now that Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are healthy. As one of the league's best teams against ground-ball pitchers, hitting .294 and slugging .476 (third in each category), the good times should continue against Ashcraft.
The right-hander has been abysmal this season with poor numbers on contact — namely a .281 Expected Batting Average, which ranks inside the bottom 10% of all pitchers — so I see little reason to believe in a turnaround here.
New York is a rather unexciting first leg at this price, but it certainly warrants our attention.
Juan Soto 2+ Total Bases (+110)
Once again, you'll probably laugh at me for sounding like such a simpleton. However, Soto is fifth in the league with 24 hits in 81 plate appearances versus ground-ballers, hitting .522 and slugging .935 and has excelled against these pitchers throughout his career, hitting .306 and slugging .536.
It appears Soto is completely healed from his hand injury as he had two hits and a homer on Friday and returned Sunday with one hit in three at-bats. He also should see a large complement of cut-fastballs from Ashcraft, a pitch he's teed off on this year in a limited sample (.332 xBA and .594 xSLG). He's never had issues with that pitch and loves to hit fastballs of all types, so his good form should stick here.
Anthony Volpe to Record a Stolen Base (+300)
Let's get a little bolder here. It's been a strange stretch for leadoff man Anthony Volpe, who's hitting just .182 over the past 10 games and has now gone 14 games without swiping a bag, attempting just one over that span.
Well, Volpe — like Soto — has done well against ground-ball arms. He hitting .340 against them this season and should be in a very friendly matchup against Ashcraft. I have full confidence that Volpe will reach base at least once, and if he does, I think he'll try to break his stolen-base slump.
Luke Maile ranks 23rd among all catchers in caught-stealing rate and 22nd in Caught Stealing Above Average on attempts at second base, according to Statcast. So, this isn't the unfriendliest matchup for someone with excellent speed and prowess on the bases.
