Reds vs Yankees Odds, Pick
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+168 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -130 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-200 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +108 |
The Cincinnati Reds head to the Bronx on Tuesday to start an interleague series with the New York Yankees.
The Yankees regained their footing over the past weekend in Canada after splitting a series against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Bronx Bombers went 14-13 in June and are now tied for first place in the AL East.
Meanwhile, the Reds lost 2-of-3 against the St. Louis Cardinals and hope to stay alive in the NL Wild Card race.
Tonight, we'll see Graham Ashcraft on the mound for the Reds and Luis Gil for the Yankees.
The market has the Yankees as heavy favorites of -200 on the moneyline at most sportsbooks with the over/under set at 8.5. Let's make a Reds vs. Yankees pick as we take a look at the MLB odds for Tuesday, July 2.
Cincinnati Reds
It's been a less-than-desirable season for the Reds, who are now six games under .500. The good news is, practically every single team in the National League is still alive for one of the Wild Card spots outside of the Rockies and Marlins.
Ashcraft has had a horrible season for the Reds thus far, posting a 5.45 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His xERA comes in at 5.10, so it's safe to say his results have not been misleading.
The young righty relies on his running fastball for effectiveness, but he's allowing a lot of hard contact. His walk rate isn't doing him any favors, and his xBA of .281 is far too high for the big-league level.
The Reds' bullpen has been shaky for most of the season, so even if Ashcraft holds the Bombers to minimal damage, it's tough to back them.
As shaky as the bottom part of the Yankees' lineup has been lately, this is a terrible matchup for Ashcraft and the rest of the Cincinnati pitching staff.
The offense, meanwhile, draws Gil, who hasn't been pitching his best lately. To take advantage of a mediocre Yankees pen, the Reds' hitters need to knock Gil out of the game early to stand a fighting chance.
New York Yankees
Tonight's big story for the Yankees is what type of performance they get from Gil. Gil started the season off great and was by far New York's most dominant starting pitcher.
However, he has been roughed up in his last two outings and has failed to escape the fifth inning in either start. Many are wondering if the league has figured out Gil's arsenal, but it could just be a rough patch that all Major League starters go through occasionally.
Gil's walk rate and pitch efficiency are still a work in progress, but his chase and whiff rates remain elite. He's not allowing a lot of hard contact either, so expect him to get back on track moving forward.
The Bombers' offense draws a solid matchup against Ashcraft. The Yankees' lineup has gone 7-for-19 lifetime in limited action against him.
The bottom of New York's order has been in dismay since the injuries to Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton, but tonight is a great opportunity to continue the momentum it established over the weekend.
Aaron Judge may start getting the Barry Bonds treatment the way he's been swinging the bat lately, but there's enough to like about the matchup all around. Ultimately, the Yankees should provide plenty of run support for Gil.
Reds vs Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
Simply put, I expect a big turnaround performance from Gil tonight. The Reds' hitters will be in for a long night at the plate.
On the other side, the New York offense showed some promise in Toronto over the weekend, and the matchup tonight is far too good to pass up.
The moneyline price of -200 is too high, so I'm going to play the run line and lay Yankees -1.5 at plus-money.
Their offense should do plenty of damage against Ashcraft early, and even if Gil continues to struggle, the bats should provide plenty of support.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+108 · Play to -110)
