Rockies vs Brewers Prediction | Wednesday MLB Pick
Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan McMahon of the Colorado Rockies.
Rockies vs Brewers Odds
| Colorado Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+145 | 12 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-175 | 12 -110o / -110u | -1.5 -115 |
The Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers square off on Wednesday night in the third game of a four-game set at Coors Field.
They split the first two games of this series with each game being decided by a single run, which could be in play once again as Milwaukee's Colin Rea takes on Colorado's Dakota Hudson.
Colorado has been the worst team in the National League this season, and it is one of the few teams not in the wide-open battle for the third NL wild-card spot. It sits 29-56, 23 1/2 games out of the NL West division lead and 15 games out of a wild-card spot in what looks to be another lost season for the Rockies and their fans.
Milwaukee has had much more success, posting a 51-35 record and holding a six-game lead in the NL Central. The Brewers will look to win this series and continue their trek toward a playoff berth.
Rockies vs Brewers odds for Wednesday have the Brewers installed as -175 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 12 (-110/-110).
Where does the betting value lie? Let's make a Rockies vs Brewers prediction as we look at the MLB odds for Wednesday, July 3.
Colorado Rockies
Hudson, who's in his first season with the Rockies after a six-year stint with the Cardinals, takes the mound for Colorado tonight. The transition has not gone well for him, as he owns a 5.84 ERA and 5.56 xERA in 81 2/3 innings pitched this season.
Hudson ranks in the sixth percentile in whiff rate and second percentile in strikeout rate while also ranking in just the 14th percentile in walk rate.
Considering batters tend to put the ball in play against Hudson, it hasn't helped that he ranks in the 27th percentile in hard-hit rate and 30th percentile in average exit velocity.
Luckily for Colorado, Hudson has missed barrels this year, ranking in the 78th percentile in barrel rate.
Hudson is mostly a ground-ball pitcher, generating a 52.9% ground-ball rate to rank in the 89th percentile. The Brewers have the second-highest ground-ball rate in the league, so this may come into play today.
Things haven’t come easily for the Rockies on the offensive end this season. They rank 28th in wRC+ and 18th in wOBA. They strike out at the third-highest rate in baseball and walk at the fifth-lowest rate, making them largely dependent on putting balls in play to generate runs.
Colorado ranks 11th in hard-hit rate, 16th in barrel rate and 19th in average exit velocity. Because of this, they sit 16th in xwOBAcon despite sitting 28th in xwOBA.
Even with the boost to offense that Coors Field provides, the Rockies come in at just 27th in wRC+ at home this season. However, they're eighth in home wOBA.
At home this season, the Rockies rank ninth in ISO, seventh in on-base percentage, sixth in slugging percentage and first in BABIP by a large margin.
Milwaukee Brewers
On the other side, the Brewers will be starting Rea, who owns a 3.61 ERA but a 5.31 xERA and 4.64 SIERA in 2024.
The 34-year-old has the best ERA of his career, but the peripheral numbers suggest that he's still performing closer to his career mark of 4.47.
Rea ranks in the fifth percentile in walk rate, ninth percentile in chase rate and 14th percentile in strikeout rate. He's around average in walk rate (54th percentile) but still sits in the 23rd percentile in average exit velocity allowed, 21st percentile in barrel rate and 46th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Milwaukee’s offense has played a key role in helping it pace the division this season. The Brew Crew ranks ninth in wRC+ and eighth in wOBA. They also sit second in OBP thanks to their 9.4% walk rate, which ranks third.
The Brewers don't hit for a ton of power, coming in at 20th in ISO and 13th in SLG. They're also 17th in hard-hit rate, 24th in barrel rate and 18th in exit velocity.
Despite these weak contact numbers, they have managed to lead the league with a .315 BABIP, which may be a bit inflated.
Rockies vs Brewers
Betting Pick & Prediction
These two starting pitchers are among the worst full-time starters in the league this season. They both own Stuff+ numbers of 85 or lower and xERAs over 5.00.
This matchup certainly lends itself to offense. That offensive outburst is already expected, though, as the game is taking place at Coors Field and has a total set at 11.5.
The Brewers offense draws a lot of walks and hits a lot of ground-balls, which should be on display against Hudson. However, they don’t hit the ball particularly hard or display much power, which hurts them overall.
Colorado’s offense hasn't been good this year, but it has performed well at home. With Rea being a below-average starting pitcher, the Rockies should tee off without much issue.
The difference in this game will be Hudson’s ability to keep the ball on the ground to limit damage from the Brewers offense.
I believe the Rockies can keep this game close and potentially pull off an upset victory, so I’ll take them at +1.5 on the run line for the full game.
Pick: Rockies +1.5 (-110 · Play to -115)
How would you rate this article?
