The Colorado Rockies will roll out left-hander Kyle Freeland against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday night at Dodger Stadium. Opening pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. ET on MLB.TV.
Let's take a look at the latest odds and get to my Rockies vs Dodgers MLB parlay picks for Friday night.
Tony Sartori's Rockies vs Dodgers MLB Parlay Picks for Friday
- Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+112)
- Will Smith to Record a Hit (-260)
- Dodgers -1.5 (-113)
Parlay Odds: +308 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+112)
Freeland has struggled this season, posting a 5-7 record with a 4.89 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through 19 starts. His underlying metrics are equally poor, as the southpaw ranks in the bottom-third of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Specifically, we are going to fade Freeland in the prop market as he ranks in the third percentile in whiff rate and 12th percentile in strikeout rate. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 3.5, a total the left-hander has failed to surpass in four of his past seven starts.
These woes are likely to continue against Los Angeles, a team that boasts a .263 BA, .483 SLG and .351 wOBA through 236 combined career plate appearances against Freeland. He is also 5-10 through 23 career starts against the Dodgers with a 4.75 ERA.
Will Smith to Record a Hit (-260)
Continuing this trend of fading Freeland, we are also going to back a member of Los Angeles' lineup. Enter Will Smith, who may not be a legend, but boasts a .294 BA, .588 SLG and .403 wOBA through 19 career plate appearances against Freeland.
Smith's plate appearances have been going off without a hitch recently, considering that he has recorded 15 hits over his past 15 games. One of the anchormen of this lineup, he boasts a .278 batting average over that stretch.
Any time Colorado hands Freeland the rock, it's fair to assume he might get slapped around a little bit, especially in front of a large crowd.
Dodgers -1.5 (-113)
If we are fading Freeland while simultaneously backing members of the Dodgers to reach base, then a highly correlated outcome would be for Los Angeles to win this game.
The Dodgers are clearly the superior team, which isn't exactly a hot take. They pace the Rockies in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
I've already discussed my distrust in Freeland, but Los Angeles also possesses the stronger bullpen in this matchup. This season, the Dodgers' relief staff outranks Colorado's in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Finally, each of Los Angeles' past 10 wins have come by at least a two-run margin, while the opposite is true in each of the Rockies' past 10 losses.
