Rockies vs Dodgers Odds, Picks & Predictions (6/1)
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Rockies vs Dodgers Odds, Picks & Predictions (6/1)
| Colorado Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+245 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | +1.5 +114 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-305 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | -1.5 -135 |
The Los Angeles Dodgers are hurting, falling back into a rut after a three-game sweep of the Mets to drop their sixth game in nine tries. They'll send one of their best arms to the bump on Saturday in the form of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has slowed down in recent starts and will be looking to regain his footing against a struggling Rockies offense that suddenly came to life in an upset victory on Friday.
Can the Dodgers' bats awaken against a historically troubled starting pitcher (Cal Quantrill) who's managed to turn his career around in Colorado this year?
Let's find out in my MLB betting preview below, which includes my Rockies vs Dodgers prediction on the over/under.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies managed to hang four runs early on Friday against Walker Buehler — a performance driven almost solely by youngster Ezekiel Tovar — before their pitching staff held firm once again to shut down a Dodgers offense that's seen better days.
That doesn't change the fact that Colorado sits 21st in wRC+ over the last two weeks, hurting a bit in the strikeout department at 22.2%. With that said, the Rockies may just be a victim of circumstance.
That number, while bad, is still better than the 25% strikeout rate they've posted all season long and they've not only walked at a very high 9.3% clip, but have hit pretty much around the league average at .245. This may not be a great offense, but it's a much better version, and against lefties this year, it does own a decent .147 Isolated Power.
Now that the offense is out of the way, it's time once again for me to talk about Cal Quantrill, who is still pitching in Major League Baseball against all odds. He's added a splitter in recent seasons, which has performed brilliantly this season with a .188 xBA, and while that's been a very popular pitch this season around the league, the Dodgers rank eighth in run value against it.
The sum of the parts for Quantrill are still uninspiring, however, given he's pitched to a ton of contact and owns a .254 Expected Batting Average next to a high 8.9% walk rate. He may, in fact, have transformed into a palatable back-end starter, but against the Dodgers, who walk at one of the highest clips in the game, he's certainly in a spot of bother.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are sputtering at the dish with a wRC+ of 98 over the last two weeks, drawing calls from fans to make some roster moves.
Max Muncy is still on the shelf with an injury, but it would appear that L.A.'s exhausted most of its initial options with James Outman optioned to Triple-A for Andy Pages and Miguel Vargas recalled to help out in the absence of Muncy.
Those moves haven't done much to help in the interim, and L.A.'s experienced a sharp drop in walk rate — something that's been the lifeblood of this team for years. The Dodgers are still producing acceptable power numbers and limiting strikeouts somewhat, but stringing together hits has been a big challenge.
On the hill, Yamamoto has certainly taken a step back after a wondrous first month in the big leagues. He was certainly worse in May, with an inflated ERA and a six-point drop in strikeout rate, but the good news is that his xBA barely moved and his xSLG dropped by one point. He's still not walking anybody and he has even induced a higher number of ground balls, so it wouldn't appear as though there are any glaring issues.
Perhaps Yamamoto wasn't going to pitch to a sub-three ERA all season and this was just some regression to the mean, and there are certainly worse months than pitching to a 3.48 ERA across 31 innings in five starts.
Rockies vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm not overly concerned with Yamamoto despite recent struggles, but I am definitely concerned about th Dodgers offense. They're searching for a spark, and it doesn't seem there's any discernible reason it will come against an effective starting pitcher.
Even with decent numbers against the splitter, the Dodgers are failing to populate the bases with walks and hits and just have a smattering of homers to show for of late.
Quantrill has long been a pitcher I've faded in the past, but I think there's a lot of merit this season, brought on by his new splitter. I think he can do enough to allow for the Dodgers' offensive issues to persist. On the flip side, while the Rockies have been better at the plate, Yamamoto still looks to be the dominant arm he was just a few weeks ago.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-113)
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