Rockies vs. Mets Odds
| Rockies Odds | +340 |
| MetsOdds | -450 |
| Over/Under | 7 (-115/-105) |
| Date | Thursday, Aug. 25 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Channel | SNY |
*MLB odds as of Thursday morning
If Saturdays are for the boys, then apparently MLB Thursdays are for huge moneyline favorites.
While scrolling through the Action Network's MLB Live Odds Page, I noticed that the Phillies are -335 favorites against the Reds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
That's certainly a big MLB moneyline, but not necessarily unheard.
But just below it in Thursday's baseball rotation is Rockies vs. Mets, which is an absurdly large moneyline.
Obviously the 79-46 Mets, with ace Jacob deGrom on the mound at home, are going to be favored over the 54-71 Rockies.
But a -450 price tag to lay it with New York at FanDuel is something that I had to dig into.
So, using our Bet Labs software, I ran the numbers to see just how rare a MLB moneyline of -450 is historically, including how these favorites have performed for bettors throughout the years.
Rockies vs. Mets Betting Trends
To start, there have been just 23 instances of an MLB team closing as a favorite of -400 or larger dating back to the 2005 season.
These favorites have won 17 of those 23 games for a 73.9% win rate, but the price of these teams has actually resulted in a loss of 2.06 units.
That means a bettor wagering $100 on each favorite of -400 or larger since 2005 has lost $206, despite that 73.9% win rate.
When we focus solely on favorites of -450 or larger, we see that it has happened just seven times since 2005.
Again, these teams are 5-2 straight up, yet the 71.4% win rate has resulted in a loss of 0.97 units.
