Rockies vs. Red Sox Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+198 | 9.5 -106 / -114 | +1.5 +100 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-240 | 9.5 -106 / -114 | -1.5 -120 |
After claiming a series win over their biggest rival on Sunday Night Baseball, the Boston Red Sox will look to avoid a letdown as massive favorites Monday at home against the visiting Colorado Rockies.
The Red Sox are priced at -260 to win Monday. James Paxton has pitched to a 3.81 ERA in 26 innings and will start for Boston. He will be opposed by Connor Seabold, who has pitched to a 5.10 ERA in 47.2 innings. Here's a breakdown of the matchup, including my betting picks for Rockies vs. Red Sox.
Colorado Rockies
Surprisingly enough, Connor Seabold is actually faring worse away from Coors Field this season. In a smaller sample size of 18.1 innings on the road, he has pitched to a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Both of those marks are worse than his results at home, so pitching at Coors has not been his only problem.
Seabold has pitched to a 4.30 xERA, with an xSLG rate of .415. His xFIP is less encouraging at 5.57.
Lacking much in the way of "put-away" stuff has been a concern for Seabold. He owns a strikeout rate of just 16.7%. Batters have a two-strike miss rate of just 14%, which is the second-lowest mark in MLB among pitchers to have thrown over 25 innings.
Batters hitting from the one, two, or three holes in the lineup have slugged .622 versus Seabold. That trend could continue Monday, looking at his weaknesses versus a strong top of the order from the Sox.
With Seabold's betting total set at just 15.5 outs, it is important to note that the Rockies bullpen has remained in awful form the last 30 days. Their xFIP of 4.94 is the second worst mark in baseball.
Boston Red Sox
Offensively, the Red Sox continue to put forth strong results, even if that strength is somewhat hidden by a .500 record playing out of the dominant AL East. Their xwOBA of .423 is the ninth-best mark in baseball. At home they have generated 5.73 runs per game, which is the third-best mark in baseball.
They have hit to a 10th-best wRC+ of 103 versus right-handed pitching and have a number of batters who should set up well versus former teammate Seabold.
Alex Verdugo is in strong form and has slugged .500 versus right-handed pitchers this season. He has an OBP of .400 at home and has put 51% of two-strike pitches in play this season. Masataka Yoshida, who has slugged .506 versus righties, is a good target to continue his strong work at Fenway tonight.
Those two should set the table for Rafael Devers, who has continued to put forth excellent PA's throughout the last two weeks. Devers should be able to put some balls in play versus Seabold. While he is technically in his lesser split versus a righty on the season, that has not been true over a sample of his career.
Rockies vs. Red Sox Betting Pick
The top of Boston's order is a matchup nightmare for Seabold. Verdugo, Yoshida, and Rafael Devers are strong targets to do damage in this matchup, and I do not see Seabold's reasonable recent results continuing.
Assuming Boston rolls out its typical lineup versus a right-handed starter, Devers to record an RBI sets up to be a great play. He could come to the plate numerous times with RISP in this matchup, and with where his game is at right now I would feel great about him in that situation.
Over 1.5 total bases at -120 is an option, but I see more value betting Devers to record an RBI.
Pick: Rafael Devers to record an RBI (-120) |
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