We're all knotted up in the AL Central!
The Kansas City Royals tied the Guardians for the AL Central lead after taking the first three games of this four-game set in Cleveland. It's been pure domination from Kansas City.
We'll see what the finale brings and who ultimately holds the division lead this weekend.
It's only fitting to try hitting a Royals vs Guardians same-game parlay for such a monumental game.
Sean Paul's Royals vs Guardians MLB Single Game Parlay for Wednesday, August 28
- Guardians ML (-142)
- Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-164)
- Steven Kwan 2+ Total Bases (+110)
Parlay Odds: +384 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Royals vs Guardians Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +130 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -155 |
Guardians ML
By the end of Wednesday, Cleveland will regain the sole lead in the division.
I know the offense hasn't looked pretty lately, and it's risen to the surface even in the past couple of days.
The Guardians' once-stout offense has regressed to one of the worst in MLB during August. Cleveland ranks 23rd in MLB with a 90 wRC+ this month, including a .241 BABIP, which ranks last by a wide margin. I don't know what Cleveland did to the BABIP gods — it must've been quite unkind.
Some positive regression could come, especially against Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha.
Wacha enters with a 3.33 ERA, but his 4.32 xERA and 3.76 FIP tell a different story. He's been lucky, but his luck could be coming to an end in a difficult matchup. Despite Cleveland's recent struggles, its home ballpark ranks in the top ten in home runs this year. That's a problem for Wacha, who is known for his dependency on fly-ball outs.
I'm looking to fade Wacha here, primarily because of the location. I'd look at this handicap differently if this game were in Kansas City. Wacha could serve up a few long balls here, and that's a problem for the Royals.
Once the game gets to the seventh inning, it is pretty much a wrap if the Guardians lead. Very few teams have scored off Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith or Emmanuel Clase, as evidenced by their below 2.00 ERA's. Clase hasn't allowed a run in over a month and boasts an elite 0.59 ERA.
Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Tanner Bibee posted a four-game stretch with seven or more strikeouts, including 11 or more in two of the four games in June. That stretch boosted Bibee's strikeout props, but he's bounced back to reality since the dominant run.
The Guardians' impromptu ace has punched out fewer than seven batters in six of his past eight outings. That and the Royals' 19% K rate in August are prime reasons Bibee's strikeout prop now sits at 4.5.
That's low. It's not as if the Royals don't strike out. They went down on strikes six times against Gavin Williams yesterday, another pitcher with extreme strikeout stuff.
He still sports a solid 9.3 K/9, but it's not the typical 10 or 11 K/9 that most aces from playoff-caliber teams boast.
In two outings against the Royals this year, Bibee struck out three hitters in one and seven in another. In a strange twist, Cleveland won the game where Bibee struck out three and lost the one he struck out seven.
I'm betting Bibee will cruise through for at least five strikeouts against the Royals. Taking Bibee's over on 4.5 strikeouts is juiced, but I still think it's fairly priced up to -200. He averages more than a K per inning, so if he goes five innings at worst, he should strike out five. He'll probably go past the fifth here, though.
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Steven Kwan 2+ Total Bases
Steven Kwan isn't going to be bad forever.
He's a proven high-level major league hitter, capable of drilling a ball into the gap for extra bases or collecting a pair of hits to reignite the offense and hit on his 1.5 total bases prop.
There's no sugarcoating Kwan's recent struggles. He's hitting below .200 over the past month and .143 in the past week. Both numbers are terrible, but let's not quickly forget how good Kwan was early on.
Kwan's BABIP sits at .202 in August, compared to .326 from May through July — some of which includes time he missed with injury. I'd imagine water will find its level eventually. Even if Kwan's BABIP middles out, that puts him in the .265-ish BABIP range. It's still not great, but infinitely better than .202.
Guardians vs Royals Weather
Royals vs Guardians Prediction
- Guardians ML (-142)
- Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-164)
- Steven Kwan 2+ Total Bases (+110)
Parlay Odds: +384 (FanDuel)
