The Kansas City Royals (72-58) and Cleveland Guardians (75-55) begin their four-game series on Monday afternoon at Progressive Field. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET on Bally Sports Southwest Extra and Bally Sports Great Lakes. This series is a battle between two of the three top teams in the American League Central.
The Guardians currently have a three game lead over both the Royals and the Twins. Kansas City and and Cleveland will play a double header on Monday and then complete the series with games Tuesday night and a Wednesday matinee. The Royals just lost a home series to the Phillies, who took the final two of the three in Kansas City. Bobby Witt Jr. and company have a tough week, they'll finish three games in four days in Cleveland and then fly straight to Houston to play the Astros for four straight. They'll kick the week off with their ace on the mound, Cole Ragans.
Meanwhile, the Guardians, who just finished up a 2-1 home series win against the Texas Rangers, counter in Game 1 with Nick Sandlin. They'll stay home after this four-spot versus Kansas City to take on the Pirates, before heading to Kanas City early next week to finish the season series. These teams will play each other seven times in the next 10 days!
All of these games carry postseason implications, which makes them that much more enjoyable. We're truly in the home stretch now. Let's preview the game and my Royals vs Guardians predictions, featuring my MLB pick on the first five innings moneyline for Monday's matchup.
Royals vs Guardians Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +132 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+102 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -160 |
Royals vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| TBD | Stat | TBD |
|---|---|---|
| 10-8 | W-L | 7-0 |
| 4.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.4 |
| 3.31 / 3.37 | ERA /xERA | 3.88 / 4.28 |
| 3.01 / 3.31 | FIP / xFIP | 5.03 / 4.27 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 21.3% | K-BB% | 17.1% |
| 40.7% | GB% | 36.0% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 100 | Location+ | 94 |
Justin Perri's Royals vs Guardians Preview
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Rally Behind Cole Ragans?
There's been some concern that Cole Ragans hasn't exactly been at his best. There's been a decrease in fastball velocity, an increase in home runs allowed, and yet the Royals have won in five of his last seven appearances. This includes his most recent start against the Angels where his slider looked a bit off but he still worked his fastball and changeup to generate whiffs.
Ragans is averaging exactly seven strikeouts per start in his last seven games and his strikeout prop line sits right at 6.5 with heavy juice on the under. The Guardians are the toughest teams to strikeout, leading the league with a 18.7% rate which drops just a touch to 18.4% when facing left handed pitchers like Ragans.
When the Kansas City Ace last faced Cleveland he struggled, giving up five earned runs largely in part to decreased velocity on his fastball. He also only struck out six in that appearance. It does appear that the velocity on the fastball has improved, so this might be a spot where Ragans outperforms his last matchup against this AL Central foe.
Even if Ragans struggles to rack up a high number of strikeouts, his command and stuff should continue to give Kansas City an advantage every time he takes the mound.
The Royals have been a strong team against the spread, holding a 72-57 record. They've been a good home team, so do not be surprised to see their offense struggle a bit on the road. They are third in runs scored per game at home and 12th in runs per game on the road.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Christmas in August
The Guardians always seem to have an unknown player come out of the woodwork to give them incredible value and help to power their team to contention. In the first half of this year, and much of last season, that was Steven Kwan. However, Kwan has fallen off from his torrid start to the season (used to have a .350 batting average), and Cleveland has seen a new source of production emerge, Jhonkensy Noel.
Noel, or Big Christmas, is a power hitting rookie that's smashed 12 home runs in his first 41 games. If he were to keep these rates up and qualify for hitting leaderboards, he would be in the 99th percentile for both barrel rate and bat speed. The only qualified hitters with a higher barrel per plate appearance rate are Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Shoehei Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton. Not bad company.
Now, of course he's still just getting started, and some of his swing choices back that up, Plus, small sample sizes can of course flip the other way just as quickly. But for now, the Guardians have a run creator who's third in baseball in bat speed; third! He's driven in 10 runs in his last 11 games and has done so with an insane .770 xSLG. All signs point to him continuing to be a big part of the Guardians order this season.
The big bat has helped Cleveland over/unders go over the total. Four of the last five games have gone over and the total is 34-22-4 O/U when the Guardians play at home.
My Royals vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
The moneyline here has not moved much, indicating market confidence on Ragans giving the Royals a slight edge even on the road at Progressive Field, where Cleveland has been strong this season.
Kansas City took three of four in the last series these teams played against one another in late June. That set of games was played in Kansas City, so Cleveland will likely be looking to respond and make up some ground in the season series.
Thing is, I don't think they will. Ragans got a bit unlucky in his last game out and I think his line might be misleading. The underlaying pitch quality is looking solid again, and I think he's the type of pitcher you want to trust. I'm isolating that trust and playing the Royals ML in the first five innings.
Moneyline
The Royals are coming in off back to back losses while Cleveland finished their last series out strong ain't the Rangers. With Pitching having been the issue for Kansas City in their last two games, where they gave up a combined 22 runs to the Phillies, they should looking for their ace to lock down the opposition and deliver a victory. Both teams have been priced well this season, the Royals are 41-22 on the money line when they are the favorite and the Guardians are 23-28 when made the underdog.
Run Line (Spread)
Games between these inter division foes have been a bit closer than not when playing in Cleveland, which is a ballpark that can create lower scoring games. The disparity between the -120 money line price for the Royals and the +145 price for the -1.5 run line indicates the market's estimation of a one run win for the favored Royals. It's pretty high in this case, and with Ragans on the mound there's a better chance that the Royals could win even with a lower run total from their offense. If you want a run line bet, my lean is towards taking the +1.5 with the home dog.
Over/Under
The Guardians pitching scenario for this game is a bit bleak, as Joey Cantillo is set to take the mound after an opener. The opener situations are interesting and make it a bit tough to bet, especially with totals. Openers protect the bulk starter from the top of the order, and the idea is that they get to pick up with the 4-5-6, or 5-6-7 hitters to get started on the right foot. That said, I do not think Joey Cantillo is big league ready and I think the Royals could do some damage to him. The lean, therefore, is to the Over, but I would isolate Kansas City's team total in the first five because Ragans could be that good and the Cleveland bullpen is strong.
