With the Major League Baseball regular season over, it's time to turn our attention to the 2024 MLB playoffs and Royals vs. Orioles odds to win this AL Wild Card Series, World Series, pennant more lines.
The Orioles opened as -172 favorites while the Royals are +144 underdogs (per FanDuel).
Royals vs. Orioles Series Odds for Wild Card Round in MLB Playoffs
| Royals | Orioles | |
|---|---|---|
| Series Winner | +144 | -172 |
| Win in 2 | +410 | +185 |
| Win in 3 | +330 | +220 |
Royals vs. Orioles Schedule
- Game 1: Tuesday, October 1, 4:08 pm. ET, ESPN 2
- Game 2: Wednesday, October 2, 4:38 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Game 3: Thursday, October 3, 4:08 p.m. ET, ESPN (if necessary)
Royals Playoff Preview
Royals odds & ranks
- World Series Odds: +2500
- Pennant Odds: +1000
- Regular Season Record: 86-76
- Team wRC+: 96 (20th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP: 3.90 (7th)
- Bullpen xFIP: 4.30 (25th)
From 106 Losses to the Wild Card — How the Royals Got Here
The Royals finished 2023 by setting a franchise-record with 106 losses. However, three positives from the season were the midseason trade for Cole Ragans (which could go down as one of the best in franchise history), a breakout season from Bobby Witt Jr. and a 14-12 September finish to the year.
That led to the Royals being uncharacteristically aggressive in the offseason as they signed Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Hunter Renfroe.
The Royals instantly became one of the MLB’s biggest surprises this season, getting off to a 34-22 start and reaching 60% of last year’s win total by the end of May.
The rest of the year was a bit of a bumpy ride as they finished two games below .500. That included two separate seven-game losing streaks over the last month or so.
However, the Twins imploded as they went 6-16 to finish the year. As a result, it was the Twins who the Tigers chased down and not the Royals, who earned the fifth seed by winning the season series 7-6 against Detroit.
Offense
As a rookie in 2022, Witt had 20 home runs and 30 steals, which he followed up with a 30-30 — 30-49, to be specific — season last year. However, 2024 proved to be his biggest season yet as he ranked in the top three in MLB in hits (211), batting average (.332), doubles (45), triples (11), total bases (374) and WAR (9.4). It is scary to imagine what 2025 will hold for him.
Witt paced a Royals offense that ranked 13th in runs scored. Their offense has been streaky at times, but they are a feisty bunch to play against because of how often they put the ball in play.
Kansas City had the third-fewest walks and second-fewest strikeouts in the league this season. The Royals can hit the long ball, but they manufacture runs with their speed as well. They ranked 11th with 134 stolen bases as Witt, Maikel Garcia and Dairon Blanco each swiped over 30 bags.
Salvador Perez was one of the young stars (and World Series MVP) on Kansas City’s last World Series winning team in 2015, but now as the captain, he is the veteran leader for this group. He hit 27 home runs, drove in over 100 runs for just the second time in his career and played in 158 games, the second most in his career.
If not for a thumb injury, Vinnie Pasquantino would have joined Witt and Perez with 100 RBI. There is a chance that the Royals get him back for the Wild Card series. They would certainly welcome his bat back in the lineup after he had 19 home runs and 97 RBI 131 games. He gives the Royals a left-handed presence between Witt and Perez.
Rotation
The Royals finished the regular season with a collective starting pitcher ERA of 3.55 behind one of the best rotations with Ragans, Lugo, Wacha and Brady Singer.
Manager Matt Quatraro will line up Ragans, Lugo and Wacha for the Wild Card Series. Should the series get to Game 3, Singer would likely be an option in relief as all hands will be on deck.
Ragans finished the regular season 11-9 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He ranked fifth in MLB with 223 strikeouts and ninth with 5.0 WAR.
Lugo finished seventh with 5.3 WAR after he turned in a career-best campaign. The 34-year-old went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 181 strikeouts in 206 2/3 innings.
Should the Royals take Game 1, they will have the on-paper starting pitcher edge for the following two potential games.
Bullpen
I mentioned the Royals’ free-agents additions that fueled their run, but their most important addition may actually be Will Smith.
The left-hander has pitched for the World Series champion in each of the last three seasons (Braves, Astros and Rangers). Smith will be unavailable for this postseason run as he recovers from a back injury — he was actually a contributing factor to the Royals’ bullpen not being a strength this season. Kansas City ranked 20th with a 4.13 team bullpen ERA.
Right-hander John Schreiber posted a 3.66 ERA in 51 2/3 in his first year with the club. Former starters Daniel Lynch (3.32 ERA) and Kris Bubic (2.67 ERA) posted solid campaigns. They could play a pivotal role in this series given the Orioles’ powerful left-handed bats and switch-hitters.
Kansas City attempted to fortify its bullpen by acquiring right-handers Hunter Harvey and Lucas Ecerg. Harvey had a 6.05 ERA in six appearances before suffering a season-ending back injury. Ercerg, on the other hand, converted 11-of-13 save opportunities and had a 2.88 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 25 innings. Expect him to be busy in this series.
Orioles Playoff Preview
Orioles odds & ranks
- World Series Odds: +1200
- Pennant Odds: +550
- Regular Season Record: 91-71
- Team wRC+: 115 (3rd)
- Starting pitching xFIP: 4.08 (17th)
- Bullpen xFIP: 3.97 (13th)
O's Postseason Bound Once More
Last season, the Orioles snapped a six-year postseason drought with an AL East division title. However, after winning 101 games, the season ended with a thud as they were swept by the Rangers.
They were still able to build on last year’s success, particularly in the first half, when they went 58-38 to take a one-game lead in the division into the All-Star Break.
The Orioles have not found as much success in the second half as they were a .500 club since the break.
However, they will be riding into the playoffs with momentum as they are winners of seven of their final 10 regular-season games, including a sweep of the Twins.
Additionally, should the Orioles advance, they will not have the long layoff that has hurt a few top seeds in past years.
Offense
The Orioles have long been blessed with one of baseball’s top farm systems. That potential has turned into production as they now have one of the best lineups in the game.
Baltimore ranked fifth in WOBA, second in hard-hit percentage, and tied for fourth in barrel percentage. That translated to ranking fourth in runs scored, second in home runs and third in OPS.
It was a balanced effort as the Orioles had nine players with double-digit home run totals. Team mainstay and pending free agent Anthony Santander led the team with 44 home runs.
Meanwhile, Gunnar Henderson took a leap into superstardom, with 37 homers en route to a 9.1 WAR season. He ranked in the top 10 in runs scored, home runs, total bases, extra-base hit and WAR. Colton Cowser also hit 24 homers as he made his case for Rookie of the Year.
The length of the Orioles lineup can come at teams in waves when they are rolling. They had seven players post 2.0 WAR or better.
However, they were a slightly better offensive team on the road, averaging five runs per game away from Camden Yards. That could serve them well in the ALDS, but first they need to get past the Royals.
Rotation
With Corbin Burnes leading its pitching staff, Baltimore will be able to match any team’s ace.
Over the last four years, Burnes has a 2.94 ERA, 138 ERA+ and 1.02 WHIP. Though his strikeout rate dropped this season, he remained effective with a 2.92 ERA and 128 ERA+.
Burnes has a 2.84 ERA in 19 career postseason innings, but his final postseason start with the Brewers did not end well as he allowed four earned runs in four innings. Additionally, things may get dicey for the Orioles behind him.
Grayson Rodriguez went down in August with a lat injury and he reportedly will not be returning for the postseason. He joins Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells and John Means as starters that the Orioles have lost for the season.
Rodriguez went 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA in his second season and appears to be a frontline starter moving forward – health permitting. Meanwhile, Bradish was limited to eight starts this season, but made the All-MLB second team last season.
To supplement these losses, Baltimore acquired Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers at the trade deadline. Eflin went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA in nine starts as an Oriole and I would expect him to get the ball in Game 2.
Rogers, on the other hand, was optioned to Triple-A after posting a 7.11 ERA in four starts. Given that he had struggled his last few years in Miami, it was a move that I questioned initially, but I saw it as more of a long-term play.
Rogers does have great stuff when he is right and he had a 2.64 ERA and 3.5 WAR during his breakout 2021 season. Behind Eflin, Dean Kremer and Albert Suarez are among the options to start a potential Game 3.
The Orioles appear to be at the beginning of their contention window. However, with how deep their farm system is, you have to wonder if executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias will regret not acquiring another high-profile arm, such as Garrett Crochet of the White Sox.
Bullpen
Similar to their rotation, the Orioles are missing an impact arm at the back end of their bullpen with Felix Bautista on the IL as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
In the offseason, they signed Craig Kimbriel to replace Bautista, but the veteran blew six of his 29 save opportunities and posted a 5.33 ERA. Kimbriel was released after posting a 10.59 ERA after the All-Star break.
Baltimore did acquire Seranthony Dominguez (3.97 ERA) and Gregory Soto (5.09 ERA) at the trade deadline.
Setup man Yennier Cano had another strong regular season with a 3.15 ERA and 34 holds. He will be relied on heavily.
Manager Brandon Hyde will have at least four left-handers to deploy between Soto, Cionel Perez, Keegan Akin, Danny Coulombe and Cade Popvich depending on the postseason roster.
The Orioles finished the regular season 23rd with a 4.22 ERA. That number has risen to 5.50 over the last month and will bear monitoring should the Royals need a rally late in one of the games.
— Team previews by Alex Hinton
