There is no better way to kick off October than with some playoff baseball. The Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles both come into the playoffs scuffling a bit. However, the first game of this series is bound to be a good one, as two of the best pitchers in baseball will square off.
Let's dive into three ways to bet Game 1 between the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles.
Royals vs Orioles Player Props — AL Wild Card Game 1
- Cole Ragans Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-134, BetRivers)
- Corbin Burnes Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-115, bet365)
- Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+172, FanDuel)
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 6.5 -120o / 100u | +125 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 6.5 -120o / 100u | -150 |
Cole Ragans Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-134, BetRivers)
Kansas City Royals ace Cole Ragans is the first man we're going to back in this matchup. Ragans is coming off a career year where he pitched to a 3.14 ERA and struck out 223 batters.
If Ragans is going to have a successful outing, strikeouts are going to be a big part of it, and he has the opportunity to rack them up against this Baltimore lineup. The Orioles may have a potent lineup, but they are not immune to striking out.
Baltimore comes into this game with the 13th-highest strikeout rate against lefties on the year. To add to that, they only have four guys with a below-average strikeout rate against Ragans' arsenal of pitches.
It's clear the Orioles are getting too much respect with this total, as Ragans has exceeded it in 78% of his starts this season, including a seven-strikeout performance against Baltimore in April.
Corbin Burnes Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-115, bet365)
Corbin Burnes really rounded into form in September, posting a 1.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in five starts while striking out over a batter an inning. That is credited to a mechanical change he made with his cutter release.
While Burnes may be sharp coming into the playoffs, the Kansas City lineup is not easy to navigate. The Royals are 28th in strikeout rate against righties, which means they will put the ball in play a ton.
That amount of high contact means it is more likely that we will see Burnes trend toward his average number of hits allowed, which is 5.7 per start. Burnes has allowed at least five hits in 56% of his starts this year, and this will be the third time the Royals will see him, so they should have a better idea of how to handle him.
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+172, FanDuel)
Our last prop builds off of the one above. Bobby Witt Jr. led the majors in hits this season and is a prime candidate to get on base against Corbin Burnes. However, with Burnes on the mound, Witt will have the opportunity to do more damage on the basepaths.
Burnes has notoriously struggled to hold runners on. To wit, base stealers had an 88.3% success rate against him this season.
Witt stole 25 of his 31 bases against righties this year and had a 76% success rate against righties. If Witt gets on, he will be able to steal at will against Burnes, so take the value while you can.
